Live Kalshi prediction market odds cross-referenced with our model probabilities. Course profile, historical signals, and real-time edge detection.
Augusta rewards precision over power. Elite approach play (SG: APP) is the dominant predictor — players must hit long irons into sloped, fast greens from challenging angles. Around-the-green scrambling (SG: ARG) matters on every hole. Course history is meaningful: comfort with Augusta's undulation, wind patterns, and Amen Corner separates winners from contenders.
| YEAR | WINNER | WORLD RANK | SG:APP RANK | SIGNALS HIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | #1 | #1 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 PREV TOP5 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | #3 | #3 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 PREV TOP5 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | #8 | #5 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 |
| 2021 | Hideki Matsuyama | #25 | #11 | — |
| 2020 | Dustin Johnson | #1 | #4 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 |
| 2019 | Tiger Woods | #12 | #14 | PREV TOP5 |
| 2018 | Patrick Reed | #11 | #24 | — |
| 2017 | Sergio Garcia | #12 | #9 | SG:APP TOP10 |
| 2016 | Danny Willett | #12 | #22 | — |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | #3 | #7 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 |
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Kalshi implied probabilities vs sportsbook consensus. Ranked by Top 5 odds. Edge = Books − Kalshi (positive = Kalshi is cheap).
| # | PLAYER | WIN | TOP 5 | BOOKS T5 | BEST EDGE | TOP 10 | TOP 20 | CUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAVORITES | ||||||||
| 1 | Cameron Young | 8.1% | 25% | — |
—
|
37% | 53% | 82% |
| 2 | Chris Gotterup | 4.9% | 17% | — |
—
|
29% | 44% | 77% |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele | 4.7% | 17% | — |
—
|
28% | 43% | 77% |
| 4 | Si Woo Kim | 4.0% | 16% | — |
—
|
27% | 43% | 78% |
| 5 | Patrick Cantlay | 3.2% | 13% | — |
—
|
23% | 38% | 75% |
| 6 | Wyndham Clark | 3.1% | 13% | — |
—
|
22% | 36% | 73% |
| 7 | J.J. Spaun | 3.0% | 13% | — |
—
|
22% | 37% | 75% |
| 8 | Ben Griffin | 2.8% | 12% | — |
—
|
22% | 37% | 75% |
| CONTENDERS | ||||||||
| 9 | Jackson Koivun | 2.6% | 11% | — |
—
|
20% | 34% | 72% |
| 10 | Hideki Matsuyama | 2.4% | 11% | — |
—
|
20% | 34% | 73% |
| 11 | Russell Henley | 2.4% | 11% | — |
—
|
20% | 34% | 73% |
| 12 | Ryan Gerard | 2.3% | 10% | — |
—
|
19% | 33% | 72% |
| 13 | Jake Knapp | 2.4% | 10% | — |
—
|
18% | 31% | 69% |
| 14 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 1.9% | 8% | — |
—
|
16% | 28% | 68% |
| 15 | Michael Thorbjornsen | 1.7% | 8% | — |
—
|
15% | 28% | 67% |
| 16 | Akshay Bhatia | 1.6% | 7% | — |
—
|
14% | 27% | 67% |
| 17 | Keegan Bradley | 1.5% | 7% | — |
—
|
14% | 27% | 66% |
| 18 | Jacob Bridgeman | 1.4% | 7% | — |
—
|
13% | 25% | 66% |
| 19 | Rickie Fowler | 1.4% | 7% | — |
—
|
13% | 24% | 65% |
| 20 | Harris English | 1.3% | 7% | — |
—
|
14% | 26% | 67% |
| DARK HORSES | ||||||||
| 21 | Davis Thompson | 1.2% | 7% | — |
—
|
13% | 25% | 65% |
| 22 | Corey Conners | 1.0% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 24% | 65% |
| 23 | Michael Brennan | 1.2% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 22% | 62% |
| 24 | Jordan Smith | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 23% | 64% |
| 25 | Doug Ghim | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 23% | 64% |
| 26 | Ryo Hisatsune | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 63% |
| 27 | Sungjae Im | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 62% |
| 28 | Mac Meissner | 0.9% | 5% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 64% |
| 29 | Brooks Koepka | 1.0% | 5% | — |
—
|
10% | 20% | 60% |
| 30 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0.9% | 5% | — |
—
|
10% | 21% | 62% |
| 31 | Eric Cole | 0.9% | 5% | — |
—
|
10% | 20% | 61% |
| 32 | Michael Kim | 0.8% | 5% | — |
—
|
10% | 20% | 61% |
| 33 | Ben James | 0.8% | 5% | — |
—
|
10% | 19% | 60% |
| 34 | Max Greyserman | 0.8% | 5% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 60% |
| 35 | Jackson Suber | 0.8% | 5% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 59% |
| 36 | Matt Wallace | 0.8% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 61% |
| 37 | Andrew Novak | 0.8% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 18% | 58% |
| 38 | Tony Finau | 0.7% | 4% | — |
—
|
8% | 17% | 57% |
| 39 | Ben Kohles | 0.7% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 61% |
| 40 | Marco Penge | 0.7% | 4% | — |
—
|
8% | 16% | 56% |
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