Live Kalshi prediction market odds cross-referenced with our model probabilities. Course profile, historical signals, and real-time edge detection.
Augusta rewards precision over power. Elite approach play (SG: APP) is the dominant predictor — players must hit long irons into sloped, fast greens from challenging angles. Around-the-green scrambling (SG: ARG) matters on every hole. Course history is meaningful: comfort with Augusta's undulation, wind patterns, and Amen Corner separates winners from contenders.
| YEAR | WINNER | WORLD RANK | SG:APP RANK | SIGNALS HIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | #1 | #1 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 PREV TOP5 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | #3 | #3 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 PREV TOP5 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | #8 | #5 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 |
| 2021 | Hideki Matsuyama | #25 | #11 | — |
| 2020 | Dustin Johnson | #1 | #4 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 |
| 2019 | Tiger Woods | #12 | #14 | PREV TOP5 |
| 2018 | Patrick Reed | #11 | #24 | — |
| 2017 | Sergio Garcia | #12 | #9 | SG:APP TOP10 |
| 2016 | Danny Willett | #12 | #22 | — |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | #3 | #7 | WR TOP10 SG:APP TOP10 |
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Kalshi implied probabilities vs sportsbook consensus. Ranked by Top 5 odds. Edge = Books − Kalshi (positive = Kalshi is cheap).
| # | PLAYER | WIN | TOP 5 | BOOKS T5 | BEST EDGE | TOP 10 | TOP 20 | CUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAVORITES | ||||||||
| 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | 7.3% | 24% | — |
—
|
37% | 54% | 84% |
| 2 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 5.9% | 21% | — |
—
|
34% | 51% | 83% |
| 3 | Sam Burns | 4.8% | 18% | — |
—
|
29% | 45% | 79% |
| 4 | Wyndham Clark | 3.4% | 13% | — |
—
|
23% | 38% | 74% |
| 5 | Kristoffer Reitan | 3.4% | 13% | — |
—
|
23% | 37% | 74% |
| 6 | Collin Morikawa | 3.0% | 13% | — |
—
|
23% | 38% | 75% |
| 7 | Justin Rose | 2.9% | 12% | — |
—
|
21% | 36% | 73% |
| 8 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 2.9% | 12% | — |
—
|
21% | 35% | 73% |
| CONTENDERS | ||||||||
| 9 | Aaron Rai | 2.5% | 11% | — |
—
|
21% | 36% | 75% |
| 10 | Robert MacIntyre | 2.5% | 11% | — |
—
|
20% | 35% | 74% |
| 11 | Alex Noren | 2.2% | 10% | — |
—
|
19% | 34% | 73% |
| 12 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 2.2% | 10% | — |
—
|
18% | 33% | 72% |
| 13 | Bud Cauley | 2.1% | 10% | — |
—
|
18% | 32% | 71% |
| 14 | Shane Lowry | 1.9% | 10% | — |
—
|
18% | 32% | 72% |
| 15 | Jacob Bridgeman | 2.0% | 9% | — |
—
|
17% | 31% | 71% |
| 16 | Viktor Hovland | 2.0% | 9% | — |
—
|
17% | 31% | 71% |
| 17 | Eric Cole | 1.6% | 8% | — |
—
|
16% | 29% | 70% |
| 18 | Brooks Koepka | 1.7% | 8% | — |
—
|
15% | 27% | 67% |
| 19 | Keith Mitchell | 1.6% | 8% | — |
—
|
15% | 27% | 67% |
| 20 | Harry Hall | 1.4% | 7% | — |
—
|
15% | 28% | 69% |
| DARK HORSES | ||||||||
| 21 | Mac Meissner | 1.4% | 7% | — |
—
|
14% | 27% | 69% |
| 22 | Michael Thorbjornsen | 1.4% | 7% | — |
—
|
14% | 26% | 66% |
| 23 | Nick Taylor | 1.3% | 7% | — |
—
|
14% | 27% | 69% |
| 24 | Tony Finau | 1.3% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 24% | 65% |
| 25 | Michael Brennan | 1.2% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 23% | 64% |
| 26 | Ryan Fox | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 24% | 66% |
| 27 | Sahith Theegala | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 23% | 65% |
| 28 | Jordan Smith | 1.1% | 6% | — |
—
|
12% | 23% | 65% |
| 29 | Rico Hoey | 1.0% | 6% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 64% |
| 30 | Davis Thompson | 1.0% | 6% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 64% |
| 31 | Taylor Pendrith | 1.0% | 5% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 63% |
| 32 | Corey Conners | 1.0% | 5% | — |
—
|
11% | 22% | 64% |
| 33 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 1.0% | 5% | — |
—
|
11% | 21% | 62% |
| 34 | Doug Ghim | 0.9% | 5% | — |
—
|
11% | 21% | 63% |
| 35 | Andrew Putnam | 0.6% | 4% | — |
—
|
10% | 21% | 65% |
| 36 | Max Greyserman | 0.8% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 59% |
| 37 | Tom Kim | 0.8% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 60% |
| 38 | Ricky Castillo | 0.8% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 61% |
| 39 | Steven Fisk | 0.7% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 19% | 61% |
| 40 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0.7% | 4% | — |
—
|
9% | 18% | 60% |
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