PRE-EVENT RBC Canadian Open Scheduled 1791 markets72 predictions147 on leaderboard
KALSHI · DATAGOLF · KELLY CRITERION

THE MARKET SEES THE LEADERBOARD.

We see the edge.

While everyone else is betting off vibes, narratives, and whatever take is getting recycled on X, The Prediction Edge is cross-checking live prediction market prices against model probabilities, sportsbook consensus, strokes-gained data, live round performance, weather shifts, injury signals, and hole-by-hole opportunity.

This isn't guesswork. This is mispricing, caught in the act.

Live In-Play Engine Market Gap Detection Injury Tracker Weather Shock Alerts Learning Loop Half-Kelly Sizing
Auto Mode: Available to select users. Wider access coming soon.
● PREDICTION EDGE LIVE
Confirmed Edge
Model 31.4% / Market 24.8%
Gap +6.6pts · Signal: CONFIRMED
11-book avg: 29.1%
Weather Fade
Wind +15 mph · exposed stretch
3 danger holes remaining
Live path score adjusting ↓
Injury Ping
Pre-event concern flagged
Live SG drop detected (-1.4)
WD risk: ELEVATED
Markets Tracked
Active Edges Found
Avg Edge %
11 Sportsbooks Monitored
THE MARKET IS WRONG RIGHT NOW.

Each dot is a live Kalshi golf market. Dots above the line = the model gives higher odds than the market is pricing. Bigger dot = bigger edge.

confirmed edges right now

CONFIRMED
PARTIAL
MODEL ONLY
NOISE
FAIR LINE 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% KALSHI PRICE → ← MODEL PROB DEMO DATA
BASICALLY: BLOOMBERG TERMINAL
FOR GOLF PREDICTION MARKETS.

Except this one hunts line errors, adapts during live play, and doesn't care about your buddy's gut.

Model Intelligence Live Market Pricing Sportsbook Consensus Course-Fit Scoring Live Round State
GOLF MARKETS MOVE FAST.
MOST BETTORS MOVE EMOTIONALLY.

One weather swing, one injury whisper, one split-tee setup, one fake hot start, and the board gets noisy fast. Most people respond by doing what humans do best under pressure: bad math with confidence.

01 — What They See
THE PUBLIC SEES SCORE

Leaderboard position, highlights, momentum chatter, and vibes. That's the signal they're betting off of.

02 — What We See
THE EDGE SEES CONTEXT

Remaining holes, course fit, live strokes gained, weather timing, and market dislocation vs. model probability.

03 — The Result
THE RESULT

Faster detection. Better entries. Smarter exits. Less emotional nonsense. Built for people who prefer signal over noise.

SCAN. DETECT. CONFIRM. ADAPT. LEARN. ACT.

A live quant workflow built to spot market mistakes before they become obvious.

01
Scan
Continuous Market Monitoring

Monitors all open PGA Tour prediction markets, sportsbook lines, weather feeds, injury reports, live round-state data, and strokes-gained performance across the full field — every 5 minutes.

02
Detect
Flag Pricing Drift

Flags pricing drift by comparing DataGolf model probabilities against Kalshi implied prices. Any gap above the minimum edge threshold surfaces as a candidate signal.

03
Confirm
11-Book Consensus Check

Cross-validates every candidate signal against DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Pinnacle, and 7 more. Signals that books agree on are flagged CONFIRMED — the strongest tier.

04
Adapt
Live Recalculation

Recalculates probabilities in real time based on live form, remaining holes, wind exposure, path-based opportunity, and known course-fit dynamics from 34 profiled venues.

05
Learn
Calibration Loop

Tracks every alert, every trade, every miss, every win — and feeds it back into the calibration system. Accuracy data is public at /calibration.

06
Act
Take the Signal

Take the signal manually with full model rationale, follow the paper-trading agent's output before committing real capital, or use gated Auto Mode for select users.

BUILT FOR THE EDGE
Confirmed Edge
5 MIN
Scan interval, every market
Live Edge Detection

Scans all open PGA Tour markets continuously — WIN, TOP 5/10/20, MAKE CUT — flagging every gap the model finds vs. Kalshi pricing. No refresh required.

Split Market
📊
11
Sportsbooks cross-validated
11-Book Consensus

Cross-validates every edge signal against DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Pinnacle + 7 more. If books disagree, you see it clearly labeled by signal tier.

Paper Trading — Active
🤖
$250
Simulated bankroll, running live
Paper Trading Agent

Autonomous virtual bankroll operating in parallel — places and settles trades independently so you can validate the model's edge before committing real capital.

Path Advantage
34
PGA Tour courses profiled
Course Fit Scoring

Adjusts probabilities using Strokes Gained decompositions matched to 34 PGA Tour courses — approach, off-tee, around-green, and putting weighted per venue.

Injury Ping
🚨
2 MIN
WD detection during live rounds
WD / Injury Alerts

2-minute withdrawal monitor during live rounds. Flags withdrawal impact on open positions immediately and surfaces pre-event injury concerns before round start.

Edge Quality
📈
FULL
Calibration history, public
Calibration Tracking

Full P&L history, signal accuracy by tier, win rate vs predicted probability, and market-type performance — all tracked at /calibration.

NOT ALL EDGES ARE EQUAL.

Right now, across all open markets — how strong are the signals?

Confirmed
4
avg +10.5%
Partial
7
avg +9.1%
Model Only
9
avg +8.7%
No Books
3
avg +8.3%
SIX WAYS THE MARKET LEAKS.

Every edge type the system detects — with example data so you know exactly what you're looking at.

Confirmed Edge
Model vs. Market Gap

Model 34.1% vs market 25.3%
Gap: +8.8pts · Books avg: 31.2%
Signal: CONFIRMED · 11/11 books

⚠️ Weather Fade
Wind Exposure Alert

Wind +18 mph gusts incoming
Closing 5-hole stretch exposed
Path odds recalculated ↓ -3.1pts

🩺 Injury Ping
Pre-Event + Live Drop

Pre-event concern logged
Live SG: -1.8 last 9 holes
WD monitor: ELEVATED

📉 Negative Trend
Masked Regression

Approach SG: -0.9 rolling 4 events
Putting spike masking decline
Mean reversion flagged

🧨 Split Market
Book Disagreement

Books spread: 18 pts wide
Pinnacle: 42% · FanDuel: 24%
Model: 31.5% · Signal: PARTIAL

Course Fit
Course Profile Match

SG: Approach +0.8 vs field avg
Course demands: approach-heavy
Fit score: 87/100 · elevated edge

THIS WEEK'S COURSE
RBC Canadian Open
· RBC Canadian Open
PRIMARY
SG: Total
SECONDARY
SG: Approach
TOP FIT PLAYERS
#1Scottie Scheffler+1.63
#2Rory McIlroy+1.27
#3Jon Rahm+1.25
UPCOMING EVENTS.

PGA Tour events with live edge detection and market analysis.

Jun 18
U.S. Open
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club — Southampton, NY
Jun 25
Travelers Championship
TPC River Highlands — Hartford, CT
Jul 2
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run — Silvis, IL
Jul 9
Genesis Scottish Open
The Renaissance Club — North Berwick, Scotland
Jul 9
ISCO Championship
Hurstbourne Country Club — Louisville, KY
AUTO MODE
LIMITED ACCESS

For when you want the machine watching the board so you don't have to.

Auto Mode runs the full edge detection and sizing workflow on a schedule — scanning markets, identifying confirmed edges, sizing bets via half-Kelly, and logging decisions to the paper trading ledger. For select users, it can flag positions worth acting on in near real-time.

Wider access: Rolling out to additional users throughout 2026.

REQUEST AUTO MODE ACCESS
LIVE SIGNAL QUALITY.

Real-time edge metrics across all open PGA Tour markets — updated every 5 minutes.

247+ Markets Scanned
23 Edges Detected
4 Confirmed Signals
+10.2% Avg Confirmed Edge
TOP 10
+10.8%
12 edges
TOP 5
+13.1%
8 edges
TOP 20
+9.4%
9 edges
MAKE CUT
+16.0%
14 edges
WIN
+7.2%
5 edges

Edge metrics from live DataGolf vs. Kalshi analysis. An autonomous paper trading agent validates signals against real market outcomes. VIEW PAPER TRADING HISTORY →

FREQUENTLY ASKED
What exactly is Prediction Edge?

A real-time golf prediction intelligence platform. It cross-references DataGolf model probabilities against Kalshi prediction market prices, validated by consensus from 11 sportsbooks. When the model says a player is more likely to finish top-10 than the market price implies, that's an edge — and we surface it, size it, and track it.

What data sources does the platform use?

DataGolf (model probabilities, SG data, course fit), Kalshi (live prediction market prices), ESPN (live leaderboard, tee times), and 11 major sportsbooks for consensus including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Pinnacle. All updated live during tournament rounds.

How is edge calculated?

Edge = DataGolf model probability minus Kalshi implied probability. A signal is flagged when that gap exceeds 8%. Each signal is then cross-validated against the 11-book sportsbook consensus — classified as CONFIRMED (books agree), PARTIAL (books neutral), or MODEL ONLY (books disagree).

What is the paper trading agent?

An autonomous virtual bettor running on a simulated $250 bankroll. It scans for edges every 30 minutes, places paper bets at the detected price, and settles resolved markets automatically. You can view its full P&L history to see how the model performs before committing real capital.

What is the live path model?

During live rounds, the system models each player's remaining holes — accounting for course difficulty, wind exposure, known course-fit strengths, and split-tee routing. This updates probability estimates mid-round as conditions change, not just when scores post.

Is this financial advice?

No. Prediction Edge is a data tool for informational and analytical purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, or gambling advice. Use responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

What is Auto Mode and how do I get access?

Auto Mode runs the full edge detection workflow on a schedule with near real-time alerts for confirmed positions. It's currently available to a limited set of users. Access is expanding throughout 2026 — join the waitlist to be notified when it opens up.

Recap available after the next event closes

The platform publishes a per-event recap with every settled bet, P&L, and edge-vs-outcome accuracy as soon as the round goes Final. Until then this section stays empty rather than show synthetic data.

BROWSE ARCHIVED RECAPS
PICK YOUR EDGE LEVEL

From free scouting to full Kelly-optimized intelligence.

SCOUT
Free
  • 1 pre-tournament top pick per event
  • Public leaderboard view
  • Live EV analysis
  • Confirmed edge alerts
  • Wager sizing
START FREE
SHARP
$79 / month
  • Everything in Edge
  • Hole-by-hole course visualization
  • Full player SG breakdowns
  • Kelly Criterion wager calculator
  • Bankroll tracker
  • 5-min live polling
  • Correlation risk warnings
  • Historical edge log
  • API access (beta)
GO SHARP
Save 37% with annual — Sharp at $599/yr
NEXT PGA TOUR EVENT APPROACHING

Get access before round 1 tees off.

GET ACCESS — $29/MO

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How It Works Features Auto Mode Pricing Live Board MASTERS ★ Sports Alerts ENTER PLATFORM →