THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
PREDICTION EDGE
TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) · Ponte Vedra Beach, FL · 2026-03-12T04:00Z
PRE-TOURNAMENT·UPDATED Mar 12, 2026 12:59 AM ET
COURSE
TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course)
PAR
72
YARDS
7,245
KEY SKILL
SG: Approach
GREENS
Bermuda, Fast
PAR-3 AVG
170 YDS
CONDITIONS
Clear
TEMP / RANGE
72°F (56–80°F)
WIND
SSW 6mph
HUMIDITY
79%

COURSE PROFILE — TPC SAWGRASS (STADIUM COURSE)
The island green 17th and driveable par-4 12th demand precision under pressure. Narrow Pete Dye fairways punish wayward drives. Approach accuracy into small, undulating Bermuda greens separates elites from the rest.
HOLE 17 · PAR 3 · 137 YDS
#17
Island green — most iconic par-3 in golf; water surrounds entire green
HOLE 12 · PAR 4 · 349 YDS
#12
Driveable par-4; risk/reward off tee; lagoon guards left
HOLE 18 · PAR 4 · 462 YDS
#18
Closing hole into island-style green; approach over water under pressure
PRIMARY SKILL SG: Approach
SECONDARY SKILL SG: Around the Green
GREENS Bermuda, Fast
PAR / YARDAGE Par 72 · 7,245 yds
AVG PAR-3 YARDAGE 170 yds
SKILL WEIGHTING AT THIS VENUE
SG:OTT
SG:APP
SG:ARG
SG:PUTT
SG:TOT
# SG: APPROACH LEADERS ● = has opportunity SG VALUE
#1Collin Morikawa+0.96
#2Si Woo Kim+0.95
#3Scottie Scheffler+0.94
#4Ryan Gerard+0.84
#5Viktor Hovland+0.79
#6Shane Lowry+0.75
#7Xander Schauffele+0.71
#8Jon Rahm+0.70
#9Daniel Berger+0.68
#10Kurt Kitayama+0.67
#11Rory McIlroy+0.66
# SG: AROUND THE GREEN LEADERS ● = has opportunity SG VALUE
#1Cameron Smith+0.48
#2Hideki Matsuyama+0.46
#3Sungjae Im+0.42
#4Justin Thomas+0.39
#5Harry Hall+0.38
#6Min Woo Lee+0.38
#7Scottie Scheffler+0.37
#8Keegan Bradley+0.32
#9Jason Day+0.31
#10Beau Hossler+0.31
#11Rory McIlroy+0.18
PLAYS FOUND
2
CONFIRMED SIGNALS
1
AVG EDGE
4.7pt
BEST EDGE
+5.3pt
KEY ·STRONG BUY≥ 15pt edgeBUY8–15pt edgeLEAN4–8pt edgeFADEoverpriced — avoidPASSno edge

#RANKPLAYERPLAY PRICE / SIDEIMPLIEDMODEL PROBABILITYBOOKS AVG EDGESIGNALCONTRACTS
1 ☆☆☆☆ Rory McIlroyTOP 5 LEAN +615 14¢ YES 14% 19%
raw 18%
22% (20%–27%) +5.3pt CONFIRMED 55
2 ☆☆☆☆ Scottie SchefflerTOP 5 LEAN -145 59¢ NO 59% 63%
raw 66%
53% (45%–57%) +4.1pt MODEL ONLY 11

Rory McIlroy TOP 5 LEAN +5.3pt CONFIRMED
▲ COLLAPSE
Marginal edge — lean only. McIlroy shows above-avg SG: Approach (+0.66 SG) — the defining skill at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course). Model P(TOP 5): 19% (raw 18%, +1% course adj) vs Kalshi implied 14%+5.3pt edge.
Scottie Scheffler TOP 5 LEAN +4.1pt MODEL ONLY
▼ EXPAND
Marginal edge — lean only. Scheffler's above-avg SG: Approach (+0.94 SG) is priced in — market is overrating the upside at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course). Model P(won't TOP 5): 63% (raw 66%, -3% course adj) vs Kalshi implied 59%+4.1pt edge.

Rory McIlroy TOP 5 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP5-THPC26-RMCI
SG:TOT+2.13
SG:APP+0.66
SG:OTT+0.87
SG:ARG+0.18
SG:PUTT+0.42
BOOKS AVG22%
ADJ PROB19% (+1%)
R1 TEE1:42 PM #1 (late)
WITHMatsuyama / Schauffele
FORM↑ HOT (+2.13)
VOL 24,993
FIT 
 89%
Marginal edge — lean only. McIlroy shows above-avg SG: Approach (+0.66 SG) — the defining skill at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course). Model P(TOP 5): 19% (raw 18%, +1% course adj) vs Kalshi implied 14%+5.3pt edge.
ODDS
KALSHI+61514¢
DK+35522%
FD+36022%
MGM+33523%
CZR+34023%
YES ASK
+615
14¢
+5.3pt
BUY YES
55 contracts
WIN +$47 · LOSE -$8
Scottie Scheffler TOP 5 LEAN MODEL ONLY KXPGATOP5-THPC26-SSCH
SG:TOT+2.64
SG:APP+0.94
SG:OTT+0.78
SG:ARG+0.37
SG:PUTT+0.56
BOOKS AVG53%
ADJ PROB63% (-3%)
R1 TEE8:52 AM #10 (early)
WITHFleetwood / Thomas
FORM↑ HOT (+2.64)
VOL 25,919
FIT 
 99%
Marginal edge — lean only. Scheffler's above-avg SG: Approach (+0.94 SG) is priced in — market is overrating the upside at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course). Model P(won't TOP 5): 63% (raw 66%, -3% course adj) vs Kalshi implied 59%+4.1pt edge.
ODDS
KALSHI-14559¢
DK+11546%
FD+11547%
MGM-11052%
CZR+12544%
NO ASK
-145
59¢
+4.1pt
BUY NO
11 contracts
WIN +$5 · LOSE -$6
⚡ BEST BET OF THE WEEK
RORY MCILROY
TOP 5 YES +5.3pt CONFIRMED
$8 recommended · 55 contracts @ 14¢ ·
Marginal edge — lean only. McIlroy shows above-avg SG: Approach (+0.66 SG) — the defining skill at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course). Model P(TOP 5): 19% (raw 18%, +1% course adj) vs Kalshi implied 14%+5.3pt edge.
YES ASK
14¢
+5.3pt
model 19%

Rory McIlroy TOP 5 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP5-THPC26-RMCI
SG:TOT+2.13
SG:APP+0.66
SG:OTT+0.87
SG:ARG+0.18
SG:PUTT+0.42
BOOKS AVG22%
ADJ PROB19% (+1%)
R1 TEE1:42 PM #1 (late)
WITHMatsuyama / Schauffele
FORM↑ HOT (+2.13)
VOL 24,993
FIT 
 89%
Marginal edge — lean only. McIlroy shows above-avg SG: Approach (+0.66 SG) — the defining skill at TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course). Model P(TOP 5): 19% (raw 18%, +1% course adj) vs Kalshi implied 14%+5.3pt edge.
ODDS
KALSHI+61514¢
DK+35522%
FD+36022%
MGM+33523%
CZR+34023%
YES ASK
+615
14¢
+5.3pt
BUY YES
55 contracts
WIN +$47 · LOSE -$8
POSPLAYERTOTALROUNDSTHRU
Thorbjørn Olesen E Thru —
Mackenzie Hughes E Thru —
Mark Hubbard E Thru —
Eric Cole E Thru —
Rico Hoey E Thru —
Mac Meissner E Thru —
Bud Cauley E Thru —
Max Homa E Thru —
Daniel Berger E Thru —
Vince Whaley E Thru —
Michael Thorbjornsen E Thru —
Chandler Phillips E Thru —
Emiliano Grillo E Thru —
Christiaan Bezuidenhout E Thru —
Max Greyserman E Thru —
Rasmus Højgaard E Thru —
Kristoffer Reitan E Thru —
Danny Walker E Thru —
Jhonattan Vegas E Thru —
Gary Woodland E Thru —
Alex Noren E Thru —
Taylor Pendrith E Thru —
Cam Davis E Thru —
Kevin Yu E Thru —
Tony Finau E Thru —
Patrick Cantlay E Thru —
Brooks Koepka E Thru —
Akshay Bhatia E Thru —
Ricky Castillo E Thru —
Ryan Gerard E Thru —

TEE TIME HOLE PAIRING   ● = has opportunity
7:40 AM #10 Eric Cole  ·  Rico Hoey  ·  Mackenzie Hughes
7:40 AM #1 Mark Hubbard  ·  Mac Meissner  ·  Thorbjorn Olesen
7:52 AM #10 Daniel Berger  ·  Max Homa  ·  Michael Thorbjornsen
7:52 AM #1 Bud Cauley  ·  Chandler Phillips  ·  Vince Whaley
8:04 AM #1 Christiaan Bezuidenhout  ·  Max Greyserman  ·  Emiliano Grillo
8:04 AM #10 Rasmus Hojgaard  ·  Kristoffer Reitan  ·  Danny Walker
8:16 AM #1 Cam Davis  ·  Gary Woodland  ·  Kevin Yu
8:16 AM #10 Alex Noren  ·  Taylor Pendrith  ·  Jhonattan Vegas
8:28 AM #10 Akshay Bhatia  ·  Tony Finau  ·  Brooks Koepka
8:28 AM #1 Patrick Cantlay  ·  Ricky Castillo  ·  Ryan Gerard
8:40 AM #10 Ludvig Aberg  ·  Si Woo Kim  ·  Collin Morikawa
8:40 AM #1 Garrick Higgo  ·  Matt McCarty  ·  Adam Schenk
8:52 AM #10 Tommy Fleetwood  ·  Scottie Scheffler  ·  Justin Thomas
8:52 AM #1 Brian Harman  ·  Maverick McNealy  ·  Davis Riley
9:04 AM #1 Matt Fitzpatrick  ·  Lucas Glover  ·  Sami Valimaki
9:04 AM #10 Russell Henley  ·  Viktor Hovland  ·  Robert MacIntyre
9:16 AM #1 Michael Brennan  ·  Harris English  ·  J.T. Poston
9:16 AM #10 Sungjae Im  ·  Jake Knapp  ·  Aldrich Potgieter
9:28 AM #1 Zecheng Dou  ·  Haotong Li  ·  Jordan Smith
9:28 AM #10 Johnny Keefer  ·  Patton Kizzire  ·  Seamus Power
12:30 PM #1 Lee Hodges  ·  Andrew Putnam  ·  Sam Stevens
12:30 PM #10 Tom Hoge  ·  Nicolai Hojgaard  ·  Denny McCarthy
12:42 PM #1 Michael Kim  ·  Keith Mitchell  ·  Erik Van Rooyen
12:42 PM #10 Marco Penge  ·  Patrick Rodgers  ·  Kevin Roy
12:54 PM #10 Pierceson Coody  ·  Chad Ramey  ·  Alex Smalley
12:54 PM #1 Joel Dahmen  ·  Ryo Hisatsune  ·  Taylor Moore
1:06 PM #1 Jacob Bridgeman  ·  Ben Griffin  ·  Adam Scott
1:06 PM #10 Harry Hall  ·  Stephan Jaeger  ·  Kurt Kitayama
1:18 PM #10 Keegan Bradley  ·  Ryan Fox  ·  Chris Kirk
1:18 PM #1 Shane Lowry  ·  J.J. Spaun  ·  Sepp Straka
1:30 PM #10 Wyndham Clark  ·  Andrew Novak  ·  Nick Taylor
1:30 PM #1 Rickie Fowler  ·  Jordan Spieth  ·  Sahith Theegala
1:42 PM #10 Steven Fisk  ·  Joe Highsmith  ·  William Mouw
1:42 PM #1 Hideki Matsuyama  ·  Rory McIlroy  ·  Xander Schauffele
1:54 PM #10 Sam Burns  ·  Davis Thompson  ·  Cameron Young
1:54 PM #1 Chris Gotterup  ·  Min Woo Lee  ·  Justin Rose
2:06 PM #1 Brian Campbell  ·  Aaron Rai  ·  Karl Vilips
2:06 PM #10 Corey Conners  ·  Jason Day  ·  Nico Echavarria
2:18 PM #1 Takumi Kanaya  ·  Max McGreevy  ·  Matti Schmid
2:18 PM #10 S.H. Kim  ·  Matthieu Pavon  ·  Austin Smotherman
2:30 PM #1 Zach Bauchou  ·  A.J. Ewart  ·  Sudarshan Yellamaraju

ROUND 2 · COMING SOON

ROUND 3 · COMING SOON

ROUND 4 · COMING SOON