PRE-EVENT WATCHLIST — DATAGOLF TOP 15 of 147 (full coverage at tee-off) (click to expand)
PlayerWin (model)Win askT5 (model)T5 askT10 (model)T10 askT20 (model)T20 ask
Tommy Fleetwood7.3%24.1%37.2%54.3%
Matt Fitzpatrick5.9%21.1%34.1%51.1%
Sam Burns4.8%17.6%29.0%45.2%
Kristoffer Reitan3.4%13.3%22.7%37.4%
Wyndham Clark3.4%13.4%23.1%37.9%
Collin Morikawa3.0%12.8%22.6%37.8%
Justin Rose2.9%12.1%21.2%35.6%
Nicolai Hojgaard2.9%11.9%21.0%35.3%
Robert MacIntyre2.5%11.3%20.1%34.9%
Aaron Rai2.5%11.4%20.6%35.8%
Alex Noren2.2%10.2%19.0%33.8%
Alex Fitzpatrick2.2%9.8%18.2%32.5%
Bud Cauley2.1%9.7%17.7%31.6%
Jacob Bridgeman2.0%9.4%17.4%31.0%
Viktor Hovland2.0%9.2%17.1%30.6%
Pre-tournament model probabilities vs current Kalshi YES asks. Not an endorsement — edge computation begins once R1 tees off.
RBC Canadian Open · Prediction Edge Report
RBC CANADIAN OPENPRE-EVENT
PREDICTION EDGE
RBC Canadian Open · 2026-06-11T04:00Z
PRE-TOURNAMENT·UPDATED Jun 9, 2026 5:29 PM ET
RBC CANADIAN OPEN
KEY: SG: TOTAL
PAR72
YARDS7,300
GREENSBermuda
1K. MitchellEthru —|2B. SilvermanEthru —|3K. RoyEthru —|4D. WuEthru —|5M. SchmidEthru —|6M. MeissnerEthru —|7D. WillettEthru —|8R. SloanEthru —|9J. LowerEthru —|10A. SmothermanEthru —|11H. LebiodaEthru —|12D. WalkerEthru —|13R. CamposEthru —|14P. MalnatiEthru —|15S. RyderEthru —|16M. WallaceEthru —|17M. McGreevyEthru —|18T. KanayaEthru —|19J. RoseEthru —|20T. FinauEthru —|1K. MitchellEthru —|2B. SilvermanEthru —|3K. RoyEthru —|4D. WuEthru —|5M. SchmidEthru —|6M. MeissnerEthru —|7D. WillettEthru —|8R. SloanEthru —|9J. LowerEthru —|10A. SmothermanEthru —|11H. LebiodaEthru —|12D. WalkerEthru —|13R. CamposEthru —|14P. MalnatiEthru —|15S. RyderEthru —|16M. WallaceEthru —|17M. McGreevyEthru —|18T. KanayaEthru —|19J. RoseEthru —|20T. FinauEthru —
PRELIVEPOST
KEY ·STRONG BUY≥ 15pt edgeBUY8–15pt edgeLEAN4–8pt edgeFADEoverpriced — avoidPASSno edge

No plays with sufficient edge AND payout ratio. Markets are efficiently priced right now — check back as lines move.


All players ranked by DataGolf win probability. Green edge = model above Kalshi price. Yellow = slight model lean. Opportunities above are filtered at ≥4% edge.

# PLAYER DG WIN KALSHI WIN EDGE DG TOP10 KALSHI T10 EDGE DG CUT KALSHI CUT
1Tommy Fleetwood7.3%+0.3%37.2%42¢-4.8%83.9%84¢
2Matt Fitzpatrick5.9%-0.1%34.1%37¢-2.9%82.9%83¢
3Sam Burns4.8%-0.2%29.0%34¢-5.0%79.0%80¢
4Kristoffer Reitan3.4%+0.4%22.7%26¢-3.3%74.2%74¢
5Wyndham Clark3.4%-0.6%23.1%27¢-3.9%74.4%75¢
6Collin Morikawa3.0%-1.0%22.6%26¢-3.4%75.2%75¢
7Justin Rose2.9%-0.1%21.2%23¢-1.8%73.2%73¢
8Nicolai Hojgaard2.9%-0.1%21.0%23¢-2.0%72.8%75¢
9Robert MacIntyre2.5%+0.5%20.1%24¢-3.9%74.1%75¢
10Aaron Rai2.5%+0.5%20.6%23¢-2.4%75.1%75¢
11Alex Noren2.2%+0.2%19.0%20¢-1.0%73.3%73¢
12Alex Fitzpatrick2.2%-0.8%18.2%21¢-2.8%71.6%72¢
13Bud Cauley2.1%+0.1%17.7%19¢-1.3%71.5%72¢
14Jacob Bridgeman2.0%+0.0%17.4%21¢-3.6%71.1%71¢
15Viktor Hovland2.0%-0.0%17.1%23¢-5.9%70.9%71¢
16Shane Lowry1.9%-0.1%17.9%21¢-3.1%72.2%72¢
17Brooks Koepka1.7%-1.3%14.9%18¢-3.1%67.2%67¢
18Eric Cole1.6%-0.4%15.7%17¢-1.3%69.7%70¢
19Keith Mitchell1.6%-0.4%14.6%16¢-1.4%67.5%67¢
20Harry Hall1.4%-0.6%14.6%18¢-3.4%69.0%69¢

#PLAYERMARKETSIDE PRICEIMPLIEDMODELBOOKS EDGERATING
1 Viktor Hovland TOP 20 NO 66¢ 66% 69% 63% +3.0pt PASS
2 Johnny Keefer TOP 20 NO 81¢ 81% 84% 74% +3.0pt PASS
3 Brooks Koepka TOP 20 NO 70¢ 70% 73% 61% +2.7pt PASS
4 Sudarshan Yellamaraju TOP 20 NO 76¢ 76% 79% 74% +2.6pt PASS
5 Collin Morikawa TOP 20 NO 59¢ 59% 62% 57% +2.6pt PASS
6 Michael Brennan TOP 20 NO 74¢ 74% 77% 68% +2.5pt PASS
7 Shane Lowry TOP 20 NO 65¢ 65% 67% 63% +2.5pt PASS
8 A.J. Ewart TOP 20 NO 87¢ 87% 89% 83% +2.4pt PASS
9 Max Greyserman TOP 20 NO 79¢ 79% 81% 74% +2.3pt PASS
10 Jhonattan Vegas TOP 20 NO 88¢ 88% 90% 87% +2.3pt PASS
11 Jackson Suber TOP 20 NO 86¢ 86% 88% 82% +2.2pt PASS
12 Michael Thorbjornsen TOP 10 NO 84¢ 84% 86% 81% +2.2pt PASS
13 Michael Thorbjornsen TOP 20 NO 72¢ 72% 74% 67% +2.2pt PASS
14 Kristoffer Reitan TOP 20 NO 60¢ 60% 62% 57% +2.1pt PASS
15 Alex Fitzpatrick TOP 20 NO 65¢ 65% 67% 64% +2.1pt PASS
16 Collin Morikawa TOP 10 NO 75¢ 75% 77% 74% +2.1pt PASS

No plays with sufficient edge AND payout ratio. Markets are efficiently priced right now.

TRADE THE EDGE

Open an account and start trading prediction markets today.

TRADE ON KALSHI — GET $25

No actionable plays right now. Edges found but payout ratios are too thin to justify the risk.


🌬 CONDITIONS — CRITICAL CONTEXT
Keith Mitchell leads at E.
POSPLAYERR1R2R3R4TOTALPLAYEDNOTES
1 Keith Mitchell E — played Co-leader
2 Ben Silverman E — played In contention
3 Kevin Roy E — played In contention
4 Dylan Wu E — played In contention
5 Matti Schmid E — played In contention
6 Mac Meissner E — played 0 back
7 Danny Willett E — played 0 back
8 Roger Sloan E — played 0 back
9 Justin Lower E — played 0 back
10 Austin Smotherman E — played 0 back
11 Hank Lebioda E — played 0 back
12 Danny Walker E — played 0 back
13 Rafael Campos E — played 0 back
14 Peter Malnati E — played 0 back
15 Sam Ryder E — played 0 back
16 Matt Wallace E — played 0 back
17 Max McGreevy E — played 0 back
18 Takumi Kanaya E — played 0 back
19 Justin Rose E — played 0 back
20 Tony Finau E — played 0 back
21 Collin Morikawa E — played 0 back
22 Aaron Rai E — played 0 back
23 Garrick Higgo E — played 0 back
24 Michael Brennan E — played 0 back
25 Charley Hoffman E — played 0 back
26 Tommy Fleetwood E — played 0 back
27 Corey Conners E — played 0 back
28 Sahith Theegala E — played 0 back
29 William Mouw E — played 0 back
30 Karl Vilips E — played 0 back

TEE TIME HOLE PAIRING   ● = has opportunity
7:00 AM #1 Mac Meissner  ·  Matti Schmid  ·  Ben Silverman
7:00 AM #10 Keith Mitchell  ·  Kevin Roy  ·  Dylan Wu
7:11 AM #1 Hank Lebioda  ·  Justin Lower  ·  Danny Willett
7:11 AM #10 Roger Sloan  ·  Austin Smotherman  ·  Danny Walker
7:22 AM #1 Rafael Campos  ·  Max McGreevy  ·  Sam Ryder
7:22 AM #10 Takumi Kanaya  ·  Peter Malnati  ·  Matt Wallace
7:33 AM #1 Michael Brennan  ·  Tony Finau  ·  Garrick Higgo
7:33 AM #10 Collin Morikawa  ·  Aaron Rai  ·  Justin Rose
7:44 AM #10 Corey Conners  ·  Tommy Fleetwood  ·  Sahith Theegala
7:44 AM #1 Charley Hoffman  ·  William Mouw  ·  Karl Vilips
7:55 AM #10 Matt Fitzpatrick  ·  Viktor Hovland  ·  Sudarshan Yellamaraju
7:55 AM #1 Billy Horschel  ·  Chris Kirk  ·  Davis Thompson
8:06 AM #10 Jacob Bridgeman  ·  Stephan Jaeger  ·  Taylor Pendrith
8:06 AM #1 Ricky Castillo  ·  Lucas Glover  ·  Joe Highsmith
8:17 AM #10 Bud Cauley  ·  Max Greyserman  ·  Denny McCarthy
8:17 AM #1 Lanto Griffin  ·  Taylor Moore  ·  Camilo Villegas
8:28 AM #1 Brice Garnett  ·  Lee Hodges  ·  Beau Hossler
8:28 AM #10 Thorbjorn Olesen  ·  Matthieu Pavon  ·  Adam Svensson
8:39 AM #1 Zach Bauchou  ·  Laurent Desmarchais  ·  Paul Waring
8:39 AM #10 Dan Brown  ·  David Skinns  ·  Eric Zhao
8:50 AM #10 Yohann Benson  ·  Kensei Hirata  ·  Hayden Springer
8:50 AM #1 Luke Clanton  ·  A.J. Ewart  ·  Joey Savoie
9:01 AM #10 Zecheng Dou  ·  Ashton McCulloch  ·  Kris Ventura
9:01 AM #1 Pontus Nyholm  ·  Calen Sanderson  ·  Jimmy Stanger
12:15 PM #1 Emiliano Grillo  ·  Padraig Harrington  ·  Erik Van Rooyen
12:15 PM #10 Seamus Power  ·  Chad Ramey  ·  Vince Whaley
12:26 PM #10 Christiaan Bezuidenhout  ·  Ben Martin  ·  Andrew Putnam
12:26 PM #1 Adam Hadwin  ·  Mackenzie Hughes  ·  Mike Weir
12:37 PM #1 Eric Cole  ·  Chandler Phillips  ·  Michael Thorbjornsen
12:37 PM #10 Nick Dunlap  ·  Rico Hoey  ·  Tom Hoge
12:48 PM #10 Brian Campbell  ·  Cam Davis  ·  Alex Noren
12:48 PM #1 Ryan Fox  ·  Brooks Koepka  ·  Nick Taylor
12:59 PM #1 Sam Burns  ·  Wyndham Clark  ·  Kristoffer Reitan
12:59 PM #10 Steven Fisk  ·  Max Homa  ·  Jhonattan Vegas
1:10 PM #1 Alex Fitzpatrick  ·  Shane Lowry  ·  Robert MacIntyre
1:10 PM #10 Harry Hall  ·  Aldrich Potgieter  ·  Adam Schenk
1:21 PM #10 Joel Dahmen  ·  Mark Hubbard  ·  Johnny Keefer
1:21 PM #1 Nicolai Hojgaard  ·  Davis Riley  ·  Kevin Yu
1:32 PM #10 Austin Eckroat  ·  Tom Kim  ·  Jordan Smith
1:32 PM #1 Doug Ghim  ·  Patton Kizzire  ·  David Lipsky
1:43 PM #10 Ben James  ·  Neal Shipley  ·  Jackson Suber
1:43 PM #1 Declan O'Donovan  ·  John Parry  ·  Marcelo Rozo
1:54 PM #1 Chandler Blanchet  ·  Haotong Li  ·  Justin Matthews
1:54 PM #10 Trace Crowe  ·  Dawson Lew  ·  Keita Nakajima
2:05 PM #10 Davis Chatfield  ·  Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen  ·  Jeevan Sihota
2:05 PM #1 Vince Covello  ·  Adrien Dumont De Chassart  ·  Alejandro Tosti
2:16 PM #1 Patrick Fishburn  ·  Drew Nesbitt  ·  Paul Peterson
2:16 PM #10 Jeffrey Kang  ·  Christo Lamprecht  ·  Sean O'Hair
2:27 PM #10 Matthew Anderson  ·  Jesper Svensson  ·  John VanDerLaan

ARCHITECT
PAR / YARDS72 / 7,300
GREENSBermuda
KEY SKILLTotal
SCORING TYPEBALANCED
WIND EXPOSUREMEDIUM
ROUGH SEVERITYMEDIUM
AVG PAR-3195 YDS
COURSE OVERVIEWESTIMATED
COURSE SIGNATURE BALANCED
#5#8#13#16#17#18 123456789101112131415161718
SCORING RHYTHM ▲ bogey holes ▼ birdie holes
PAR 1P42P53P34P45P46P47P38P59P410P411P412P313P514P415P416P317P418P5
POLAR ROUTING WHEEL P3 P4 P5
123456789101112131415161718ROUTING18H
HOLE MOSAIC easyneutralhard
1
P4
OTT
2
P5
ARG
3
P3
APP
4
P4
OTT
5
P4
PUTT
6
P4
OTT
7
P3
APP
8
P5
OTT
9
P4
OTT
10
P4
PUTT
11
P4
OTT
12
P3
APP
13
P5
OTT
14
P4
OTT
15
P4
PUTT
16
P3
APP
17
P4
PUTT
18
P5
OTT
VITAL STATS
7,300
YARDS
72
PAR
4x P3 · 10x P4 · 4x P5
195
AVG P3 YDS
WIND
ROUGH
26%
AVG BIRDIE RATE
15%
AVG BOGEY+ RATE
Bermuda
GREEN TYPE
COURSE PROFILE — RBC CANADIAN OPEN
Course data not yet available. Analysis based on DataGolf model probabilities and overall SG: Total.
PRIMARY SKILL SG: Total
SECONDARY SKILL SG: Approach
GREENS Bermuda
PAR / YARDAGE Par 72 · 7,300 yds
AVG PAR-3 YARDAGE 195 yds
HOLE-BY-HOLE SCORECARD HARD MED EASY
FRONT NINE
1
P4 · 430
OTT
2
P5 · 568
ARG
3
P3 · 197
APP
4
P4 · 445
OTT
5
P4 · 407
PUTT
6
P4 · 433
OTT
7
P3 · 182
APP
8
P5 · 523
OTT
9
P4 · 448
OTT
BACK NINE
10
P4 · 411
PUTT
11
P4 · 437
OTT
12
P3 · 185
APP
13
P5 · 528
OTT
14
P4 · 452
OTT
15
P4 · 415
PUTT
16
P3 · 212
APP
17
P4 · 403
PUTT
18
P5 · 533
OTT
COURSE DEMAND SIGNATURE
OTT
56%
APP
21%
PUTT
18%
ARG
4%
TOP FIT — SKILL OVERLAY course demand player skill
Scottie Scheffler
FIT: 61%
OTTAPPARGPUTTTOT
Rory McIlroy
FIT: 60%
OTTAPPARGPUTTTOT
Xander Schauffele
FIT: 59%
OTTAPPARGPUTTTOT
PLAYER-COURSE FIT MATRIX TOP 25% 25-50% 50-75% BTM 25% ● = has opportunity
#PLAYEROTTAPPARGPUTTTOTFIT
#1Scottie Scheffler
#2Rory McIlroy
#3Jon Rahm
#4Xander Schauffele
#5Ludvig Aberg
#6Cameron Young
#7Matt Fitzpatrick
#8Si Woo Kim
#9Tommy Fleetwood
#10Patrick Cantlay
#11J.J. Spaun
#12Russell Henley
#13Collin Morikawa
#14Justin Thomas
#15Sam Burns
#16Min Woo Lee
#17Chris Gotterup
#18Kurt Kitayama
#19Adam Scott
#20Bryson DeChambeau
HOLE-BY-HOLE FIT HEATMAP STRONG GOOD NEUTRAL WEAK
PLAYER1
OTT
2
ARG
3
APP
4
OTT
5
PUTT
6
OTT
7
APP
8
OTT
9
OTT
10
PUTT
11
OTT
12
APP
13
OTT
14
OTT
15
PUTT
16
APP
17
PUTT
18
OTT
MATCH
Scottie Scheffler18/18
Rory McIlroy18/18
Xander Schauffele18/18
Jon Rahm18/18
Ludvig Aberg18/18
Cameron Young18/18
Bryson DeChambeau18/18
Si Woo Kim18/18
Tommy Fleetwood18/18
Joaquin Niemann14/18
Michael Brennan13/18
Kurt Kitayama18/18
Gary Woodland17/18
Min Woo Lee18/18
J.J. Spaun14/18
Chris Gotterup18/18
Kristoffer Reitan18/18
Jake Knapp18/18
Collin Morikawa18/18
Russell Henley18/18
# SG: TOTAL LEADERS ● = has opportunity SG VALUE
#1Scottie Scheffler+2.82
#2Rory McIlroy+2.23
#3Jon Rahm+2.16
#4Xander Schauffele+1.97
#5Ludvig Aberg+1.91
#6Cameron Young+1.85
#7Tommy Fleetwood+1.84
#8Si Woo Kim+1.81
#9Matt Fitzpatrick+1.78
#10Patrick Cantlay+1.57
# SG: APPROACH LEADERS ● = has opportunity SG VALUE
#1Scottie Scheffler+1.10
#2J.J. Spaun+0.93
#3Jon Rahm+0.88
#4Collin Morikawa+0.81
#5Matt Fitzpatrick+0.81
#6Xander Schauffele+0.81
#7Rory McIlroy+0.79
#8Ludvig Aberg+0.77
#9Patrick Cantlay+0.75
#10Si Woo Kim+0.73

OPEN POSITIONS

No open positions tracked yet this tournament.