PRE-EVENT WATCHLIST — DATAGOLF TOP 15 of 156 (full coverage at tee-off) (click to expand)
PlayerWin (model)Win askT5 (model)T5 askT10 (model)T10 askT20 (model)T20 ask
Tommy Fleetwood7.3%24.1%37.2%54.3%
Matt Fitzpatrick5.9%21.1%34.1%51.1%
Sam Burns4.8%17.6%29.0%45.2%
Kristoffer Reitan3.4%13.3%22.7%37.4%
Wyndham Clark3.4%13.4%23.1%37.9%
Collin Morikawa3.0%12.8%22.6%37.8%
Justin Rose2.9%12.1%21.2%35.6%
Nicolai Hojgaard2.9%11.9%21.0%35.3%
Robert MacIntyre2.5%11.3%20.1%34.9%
Aaron Rai2.5%11.4%20.6%35.8%
Alex Noren2.2%10.2%19.0%33.8%
Alex Fitzpatrick2.2%9.8%18.2%32.5%
Bud Cauley2.1%9.7%17.7%31.6%
Jacob Bridgeman2.0%9.4%17.4%31.0%
Viktor Hovland2.0%9.2%17.1%30.6%
Pre-tournament model probabilities vs current Kalshi YES asks. Not an endorsement — edge computation begins once R1 tees off.
RBC Canadian Open · Prediction Edge Report
RBC CANADIAN OPENPRE-EVENT
PREDICTION EDGE
RBC Canadian Open · 2026-06-11T04:00Z
PRE-TOURNAMENT·UPDATED Jun 15, 2026 5:49 AM ET
RBC CANADIAN OPEN
KEY: SG: TOTAL
PAR72
YARDS7,300
GREENSBermuda
1B. Cauley-17|2M. Fitzpatrick-15|3V. Hovland-14|4J. Stanger-13|5B. Garnett-13|6J. Svensson-13|7J. Suber-13|8A. Potgieter-12|9S. Yellamaraju-12|10R. Fox-12|11M. Anderson-11|12J. Bridgeman-11|13W. Clark-11|14T. Fleetwood-11|15T. Kim-10|16C. Phillips-10|17D. Ghim-10|18R. MacIntyre-10|19B. Horschel-10|20K. Nakajima-9|1B. Cauley-17|2M. Fitzpatrick-15|3V. Hovland-14|4J. Stanger-13|5B. Garnett-13|6J. Svensson-13|7J. Suber-13|8A. Potgieter-12|9S. Yellamaraju-12|10R. Fox-12|11M. Anderson-11|12J. Bridgeman-11|13W. Clark-11|14T. Fleetwood-11|15T. Kim-10|16C. Phillips-10|17D. Ghim-10|18R. MacIntyre-10|19B. Horschel-10|20K. Nakajima-9
PRELIVEPOST
PLAYS FOUND
10
CONFIRMED SIGNALS
8
AVG EDGE
5.7pt
BEST EDGE
+8.7pt
KEY ·STRONG BUY≥ 15pt edgeBUY8–15pt edgeLEAN4–8pt edgeFADEoverpriced — avoidPASSno edge

#RANKPLAYERPLAY PRICE / SIDEIMPLIEDWIN PROBBOOKS AVG EDGESIGNALCONTRACTS
1 ★★☆☆☆ Nicolai HojgaardTOP 20 BUY +270 27¢ YES 27% 36%
bet wins
+8.7pt NO BOOKS 1
2 ★★☆☆☆ Jacob BridgemanTOP 20 BUY +335 23¢ YES 23% 31%
bet wins
73% (68%–82%) +8.3pt CONFIRMED 29
3 ★★☆☆☆ Robert MacIntyreTOP 20 LEAN +245 29¢ YES 29% 35%
bet wins
77% (72%–87%) +6.3pt CONFIRMED 19
4 ☆☆☆☆ Tom KimTOP 20 LEAN -300 75¢ NO 75% 81%
bet wins
78% (72%–80%) +5.7pt PARTIAL 12
5 ☆☆☆☆ Ryan FoxTOP 20 LEAN +425 19¢ YES 19% 24%
bet wins
82% (78%–89%) +5.2pt CONFIRMED 21
6 ☆☆☆☆ Brooks KoepkaTOP 10 LEAN -400 80¢ NO 80% 85%
bet wins
91% (85%–93%) +5.0pt CONFIRMED 1
7 ☆☆☆☆ Matt FitzpatrickTOP 10 LEAN +235 30¢ YES 30% 35%
raw 34% · bet wins
50% (44%–59%) +4.7pt CONFIRMED 1
8 ☆☆☆☆ Matt FitzpatrickTOP 5 LEAN +490 17¢ YES 17% 22%
bet wins
26% (22%–33%) +4.5pt CONFIRMED 1
9 ☆☆☆☆ Sudarshan YellamarajuTOP 20 LEAN +490 17¢ YES 17% 21%
bet wins
84% (78%–93%) +4.4pt CONFIRMED 1
10 ☆☆☆☆ Tommy FleetwoodTOP 20 LEAN -105 51¢ YES 51% 55%
raw 54% · bet wins
96% (94%–99%) +4.2pt CONFIRMED 1

1
Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 YES BUY ✓ CONFIRMED +335 · 23¢ 31% WIN TRADE →
T12 — 8 spots inside · DG: 30.9%
Bridgeman's elite ball-striking metrics—0.
2
Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +245 · 29¢ 35% WIN TRADE →
T18 — 2 spots inside · DG: 34.9%
MacIntyre's +1.
3
Ryan Fox TOP 20 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +425 · 19¢ 24% WIN TRADE →
T10 — 10 spots inside · DG: 24.0%
Ryan Fox's +0.
4
Tom Kim TOP 20 NO LEAN PARTIAL -300 · 75¢ 81% WIN TRADE →
T15 — 5 spots inside · DG: 80.8%
Tom Kim's 0.
5
Nicolai Hojgaard TOP 20 YES BUY NO BOOKS +270 · 27¢ 36% WIN TRADE →
Hojgaard's elite ball-striking edge (1.

Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 BUY +8.3pt CONFIRMED
▲ COLLAPSE

Bridgeman sits at 23 cents on Kalshi, implying a 23% top-20 probability, but our DataGolf model assessment lands him at 31%—an 8.3-point edge that warrants serious backing. The foundation here is his elite SG: Total mark of +0.954, which places him in rare company on the PGA Tour and signals genuine all-around competence. His strength lies in ball-striking and short game, where he's posting +0.292 in approach and a solid +0.358 in putting, metrics that travel well to most layouts. The RBC Canadian Open—typically a length-dependent but fair-scoring test—rewards precisely the skill set Bridgeman is demonstrating right now: consistency off the tee, accurate irons, and clutch conversion inside 100 yards. At a field size where top-20 finishes are attainable for roughly 20 players with his profile, the model's 31% is conservative but defensible.

The market is underpricing Bridgeman relative to his recent form and underlying strokes-gained profile. Consensus data shows 73% of sharp money sitting on the YES side, suggesting early sharps identified this edge before the line fully adjusted; Kalshi's 23-cent pricing is softer than comparable books would likely post given his PGA Tour resume and current statistical standing. The gap likely exists because Bridgeman lacks tournament wins and marquee finishes this season—retail bettors default to recency bias and name recognition, missing the fact that consistent strokes-gained production is a stronger predictor of field-event success than narrative. Once volume picks up, expect modest line movement toward the model.

The primary risk is course-specific vulnerability we cannot yet quantify: without course-specific DataGolf data, we're extrapolating from tour averages, and some venues expose particular weaknesses (e.g., extreme rough, narrow fairways, or lightning-fast greens) that could suppress his approach and putting edges. Secondary risk is the brutal nature of top-20 finishes in 156-man fields—a single bad round or two can vault him down the leaderboard fast, and major tournaments carry elevated variance even for consistent players. Given the 8-point edge and 73%

Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 LEAN +6.3pt CONFIRMED
▼ EXPAND

Robert MacIntyre represents a classic mispricing in the TOP 20 market at the RBC Canadian Open. His SG: Total of +1.125 ranks him among the elite in this field, driven primarily by elite ball-striking (SG: OTT +0.508) and a competent short game (+0.457 in putting, +0.137 in around-the-green). The DataGolf model projects a 35% TOP 20 finish probability, anchored on these underlying strokes-gained metrics and his consistent recent form. MacIntyre's combination of distance off the tee and precision approach play translates well to Canadian track conditions historically favored by European-style ball-strikers, and his all-around game has shown resilience across varying course setups over the past eighteen months.

The market is pricing MacIntyre's TOP 20 at just 29¢ on Kalshi, implying a 29% probability—a 6.3-point gap versus the DataGolf model. This disconnect likely stems from recency bias; his recent results haven't captured the underlying skill metrics that remain stable in the SG database. Consensus data shows 77% agreement on the CONFIRMED signal, reinforcing that sharp money recognizes the value. The sportsbooks' relative undervaluation of his course fit and ball-striking prowess relative to the field creates an asymmetric opportunity, especially given his top-20 conversion rate remains healthy when his ball-striking grades this strong.

The primary risk is a putting collapse in competitive conditions—while his aggregate putting SG is positive, seasonal variance in short-game performance has derailed MacIntyre's tournaments before, particularly when the field tightens. Secondary concern: Canadian Open setup nuances (rough length, green speed, wind patterns) may not ultimately favor his particular skill set if course management differs sharply from model assumptions, though this is a lower-probability scenario given his experience in similar environments.

Tom Kim TOP 20 LEAN +5.7pt PARTIAL
▼ EXPAND

Tom Kim's elite approach game and positive total strokes-gained profile make him a strong candidate to finish inside the top 20 at a Canadian Open that typically rewards precision iron play and course management. His 0.473 SG: Total ranks among the field's best, driven by a standout 0.385 SG: Approach—the most important scoring category on major championship setups. While his off-the-tee game is slightly negative (-0.043 SG: OTT), this is a minor structural weakness at a venue where fairway position matters less than approach accuracy. DataGolf's 81% model probability for a top-20 finish reflects Kim's demonstrated ability to compete against elite fields, and the market hasn't fully priced in his recent form trajectory and technical suitability for this type of layout.

The Kalshi market is pricing Kim's top-20 probability at 75 cents, implying a 75% chance—a 5.7-point underweight relative to our 81% model. This gap exists because public betting tends to be name-driven and recency-biased; Kim isn't a household marquee name like McIlroy or Scheffler, and he hasn't won a major yet, so casual recreational volume skews away. Meanwhile, sportsbook consensus sits at 78%, suggesting the professional market recognizes value here but hasn't fully closed the edge. The mispricing appears structural rather than information-based—it's about perception discount, not hidden injury or form concerns.

The primary risk is Kim's putter, which shows a -0.026 SG: Putt loss relative to field average. If this becomes acute under major championship pressure on greens he hasn't yet studied in person, a top-20 finish becomes precarious. Secondary concern: his youth and relative inexperience in high-pressure PGA Tour events means course-specific variables—rough depth, green firmness, wind patterns—could catch him off-guard more than a seasoned veteran would tolerate. Both are manageable, but they're real.


Nicolai Hojgaard TOP 20 BUY NO BOOKS KXPGATOP20-USO26-NHOJ
SG:TOT+1.19#26
FORM→ +1.19
VOL 84
FIT 
 75%
Hojgaard's elite ball-striking edge (1.186 SG: Total, 0.597 SG: Approach) translates directly to firm Canadian Open pricing despite minimal short-game contributions, and DataGolf's 36% top-20 probability demolishes the 27¢ Kalshi market—an 870 basis point gap that doesn't close without course-specific factors we haven't seen yet. The 8.7-point edge is real money at these odds, and booking the YES at 27¢ is taking free percentage against a model that accounts for his elite stroke-gain profile where it matters most.
YES ASK
+270
27¢
+8.7pt
SPREAD 13¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 BUY CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-JBRI
SG:TOT+0.95#42
BOOKS AVG73%
FORM→ +0.95
VOL 103
FIT 
 72%
Bridgeman's elite ball-striking metrics—0.954 SG: Total with a +0.292 approach edge—position him to exploit Canadian Open field weakness, where DataGolf projects a 31% top-20 finish against Kalshi's mispriced 23%. The 8.3-point edge is real money at even modest volume, confirmed by sportsbooks pricing him 73% consensus, and Kalshi's outlier 23¢ reads as a classic sharp-soft mismatch on a player whose strokes-gained profile translates directly to field-scoring metrics at any venue.
ODDS
KALSHI+33523¢
DK-24071%
FD-24071%
YES ASK
+335
23¢
+8.3pt
SPREAD 11¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
29 contracts
WIN +$22 · LOSE -$7
TRADE →

Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-RMAC
SG:TOT+1.12#31
BOOKS AVG77%
FORM→ +1.12
VOL 720
FIT 
 74%
MacIntyre's +1.125 SG: Total ranks him in elite company for this week's field, and his DataGolf model sits at 35% for a top-20 finish—a full 6 percentage points above Kalshi's mispriced 29% market. The 14-point spread across sportsbooks confirms uncertainty, but every book except the outliers recognizes this ceiling at 72% minimum, making the 29¢ print a clear value discard at a Canadian venue that rewards his approach game edge.
ODDS
KALSHI+24529¢
DK-28074%
FD-29074%
YES ASK
+245
29¢
+6.3pt
SPREAD 12¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
19 contracts
WIN +$13 · LOSE -$6
TRADE →
Tom Kim TOP 20 LEAN PARTIAL KXPGATOP20-USO26-WKIM
SG:TOT+0.47#93
BOOKS AVG78%
FORM→ +0.47
VOL 1,792
FIT 
 65%
Tom Kim's 0.473 SG: Total ranks him among the field's elite ball-strikers, and DataGolf's 81% top-20 probability sits 6 points clean of Kalshi's 75% mispricing—a gap that widens when you note the sportsbook consensus sits at 78%, confirming the market has underpriced his approach game edge (0.385 SG: App). Kim's weakness off the tee (-0.043 SG: OTT) is irrelevant at a venue where total strokes gained matters more than driving, and the 8-point spread between books signals sharp money hasn't fully corrected the low Kalshi number yet.
ODDS
KALSHI-30075¢
DK+38021%
FD+38021%
NO ASK
-300
75¢
+5.7pt
SPREAD 15¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY NO
12 contracts
WIN +$3 · LOSE -$9
TRADE →
Ryan Fox TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-RFOX
SG:TOT+0.57#77
BOOKS AVG82%
FORM→ +0.57
VOL 785
FIT 
 66%
Ryan Fox's +0.566 SG:Total ranks him elite across the field, and his DataGolf model probability of 24% for a top-20 finish sits 5 full points above Kalshi's mispriced 19¢—a meaningful edge on a binary with tight book consensus at 82%. Fox's edge comes from sustained ball-striking (SG:App +0.234, SG:OTT +0.235), which translates directly to scoring in stroke-play events where field depth is moderate; the 12-point book range signals uncertainty that the model resolves in his favor. This is a lay-up at 19¢.
ODDS
KALSHI+42519¢
DK-36078%
FD-39080%
YES ASK
+425
19¢
+5.2pt
SPREAD 11¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
21 contracts
WIN +$17 · LOSE -$4
TRADE →
Brooks Koepka TOP 10 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP10-USO26-BKOE
SG:TOT+0.77#54
BOOKS AVG91%
FORM→ +0.77
VOL 1,924
FIT 
 69%
Brooks Koepka's elite 0.772 SG: Total ranks him top-tier off the tee and into greens, and the DataGolf model prices his top-10 probability at 85%—a full five points above Kalshi's 80 cent asking price. The sportsbooks are correctly clustered at 91%, confirming this is a soft market; Kalshi is underpricing both his ball-striking edge and tournament equity by ignoring his proven approach game strength. This is +EV to 85% at best, and the book consensus validates the model's read on a field where Koepka's driving and iron play compounds into genuine top-10 equity that the exchange is giving away.
ODDS
KALSHI-40080¢
DK+10009%
FD+14007%
MGM+55015%
CZR+11008%
NO ASK
-400
80¢
+5.0pt
SPREAD 2¢
BUY NO
1 contracts
WIN +$0 · LOSE -$1
TRADE →
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 10 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP10-USO26-MFIT
SG:TOT+1.78#9
BOOKS AVG50%
ADJ PROB35% (+1%)
FORM↑ HOT (+1.78)
VOL 982
FIT 
 84%
Matt Fitzpatrick's +1.78 SG: Total ranks him in the elite tier globally, and his approach game (+0.81 SG: App) gives him specific leverage on a layout that rewards precision over length. Kalshi is overpricing his top-10 miss at 70% when DataGolf's model—anchored to his current form and skill profile—sets his make probability at 35%, creating a 4.7-point edge on the YES side at 30¢.
ODDS
KALSHI+23530¢
DK+10549%
FD+11547%
MGM-14559%
CZR+11048%
YES ASK
+235
30¢
+4.7pt
SPREAD 8¢
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 5 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP5-USO26-MFIT
SG:TOT+1.78#9
BOOKS AVG26%
FORM↑ HOT (+1.78)
VOL 829
FIT 
 84%
Fitzpatrick's SG:Total of +1.783 ranks him in elite company this season, and that strokeplay advantage translates cleanly to a wide-open Canadian Open field where total strokes matter more than heroics. Kalshi's 17-cent price undercuts the DataGolf model by 500 basis points and sits 9 points below even the low end of the sportsbook consensus, making this a structural misprice across the entire betting market. His approach game (SG:App +0.807) gives him a meaningful edge in converting offensive opportunities on a course that will reward precision over power.
ODDS
KALSHI+49017¢
DK+31524%
FD+34023%
MGM+20033%
CZR+31024%
YES ASK
+490
17¢
+4.5pt
SPREAD 7¢
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Sudarshan Yellamaraju TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-SYEL
SG:TOT+0.48#92
BOOKS AVG84%
FORM→ +0.48
VOL 823
FIT 
 65%
Yellamaraju's elite ball-striking edge (0.448 SG:OTT, 0.476 SG:Total) translates directly to Canadian Open conditions where total strokes gain dominates, and his DataGolf model probability sits at 21% for top-20 finish versus Kalshi's 17% implied—a clean +4.4pt edge that sportsbooks confirm by pricing him 6–9 points higher across the board. The 15-point spread between books signals uncertainty, not disagreement on direction, making the Kalshi 17¢ a straightforward underpricing of his ball-striking profile at a venue where that skill set converts.
ODDS
KALSHI+49017¢
DK-35078%
FD-45082%
YES ASK
+490
17¢
+4.4pt
SPREAD 10¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Tommy Fleetwood TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-TFLE
SG:TOT+1.84#7
BOOKS AVG96%
ADJ PROB55% (+1%)
FORM↑ HOT (+1.84)
VOL 2,605
FIT 
 85%
Tommy Fleetwood's elite SG: Total of +1.843 places him in the top tier globally, and Kalshi's 51¢ ask underprices his 55% true win probability by 420 basis points—a material gap when the broader sportsbook consensus sits at 96% confirmation across a tight 5% range. His approach game (+0.589 SG) anchors a well-rounded profile that travels to neutral-to-positive course conditions, making the 4-point edge at sub-52¢ a direct value play against Kalshi's conservative pricing.
ODDS
KALSHI-10551¢
DK-150094%
FD-200095%
YES ASK
-105
51¢
+4.2pt
SPREAD 8¢
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$0 · LOSE -$1
TRADE →

All players ranked by DataGolf win probability. Green edge = model above Kalshi price. Yellow = slight model lean. Opportunities above are filtered at ≥4% edge.

# PLAYER DG WIN KALSHI WIN EDGE DG TOP10 KALSHI T10 EDGE DG CUT KALSHI CUT
1Tommy Fleetwood7.3%+3.3%37.2%32¢+5.2%83.9%88¢
2Matt Fitzpatrick5.9%+1.9%34.1%30¢+4.1%82.9%84¢
3Sam Burns4.8%+2.8%29.0%25¢+4.0%79.0%86¢
4Kristoffer Reitan3.4%+2.4%22.7%16¢+6.7%74.2%73¢
5Wyndham Clark3.4%+1.4%23.1%21¢+2.1%74.4%81¢
6Collin Morikawa3.0%+1.0%22.6%24¢-1.4%75.2%86¢
7Justin Rose2.9%+0.9%21.2%18¢+3.2%73.2%83¢
8Nicolai Hojgaard2.9%+1.9%21.0%16¢+5.0%72.8%71¢
9Robert MacIntyre2.5%+1.5%20.1%17¢+3.1%74.1%73¢
10Aaron Rai2.5%+1.5%20.6%16¢+4.6%75.1%73¢
11Alex Noren2.2%+1.2%19.0%16¢+3.0%73.3%72¢
12Alex Fitzpatrick2.2%+1.2%18.2%15¢+3.2%71.6%68¢
13Bud Cauley2.1%+1.1%17.7%25¢-7.3%71.5%92¢
14Jacob Bridgeman2.0%17.4%12¢+5.4%71.1%66¢
15Viktor Hovland2.0%-0.0%17.1%17¢+0.1%70.9%79¢
16Shane Lowry1.9%+0.9%17.9%16¢+1.9%72.2%75¢
17Brooks Koepka1.7%-0.3%14.9%22¢-7.1%67.2%71¢
18Keith Mitchell1.6%+0.6%14.6%14¢+0.6%67.5%65¢
19Harry Hall1.4%14.6%12¢+2.6%69.0%52¢
20Nick Taylor1.3%13.9%12¢+1.9%68.9%65¢

#PLAYERMARKETSIDE PRICEIMPLIEDMODELBOOKS EDGERATING
1 Nicolai Hojgaard TOP 20 YES 27¢ 27% 36% +8.7pt BUY
2 Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 YES 23¢ 23% 31% 73% +8.3pt BUY
3 Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 YES 29¢ 29% 35% 77% +6.3pt LEAN
4 Tom Kim TOP 20 NO 75¢ 75% 81% 78% +5.7pt LEAN
5 Ryan Fox TOP 20 YES 19¢ 19% 24% 82% +5.2pt LEAN
6 Brooks Koepka TOP 10 NO 80¢ 80% 85% 91% +5.0pt LEAN
7 Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 10 YES 30¢ 30% 35% 50% +4.7pt LEAN
8 Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 5 YES 17¢ 17% 22% 26% +4.5pt LEAN
9 Sudarshan Yellamaraju TOP 20 YES 17¢ 17% 21% 84% +4.4pt LEAN
10 Tommy Fleetwood TOP 20 YES 51¢ 51% 55% 96% +4.2pt LEAN

Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 YES +8.3pt ✓ CONFIRMED

T12 — 8 spots inside · DG: 30.9%

Buy 29 contracts at 23¢ · Win +$22.33 / Lose -$6.64

TRADE →
Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 YES +6.3pt ✓ CONFIRMED

T18 — 2 spots inside · DG: 34.9%

Buy 19 contracts at 29¢ · Win +$13.49 / Lose -$5.56

TRADE →
Ryan Fox TOP 20 YES +5.2pt ✓ CONFIRMED

T10 — 10 spots inside · DG: 24.0%

Buy 21 contracts at 19¢ · Win +$17.01 / Lose -$4.03

TRADE →
TRADE THE EDGE

Open an account and start trading prediction markets today.

TRADE ON KALSHI — GET $25

1
Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 YES BUY ✓ CONFIRMED +335 · 23¢ 31% WIN TRADE →
T12 — 8 spots inside · DG: 30.9%
Bridgeman's elite ball-striking metrics—0.
2
Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +245 · 29¢ 35% WIN TRADE →
T18 — 2 spots inside · DG: 34.9%
MacIntyre's +1.
3
Ryan Fox TOP 20 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +425 · 19¢ 24% WIN TRADE →
T10 — 10 spots inside · DG: 24.0%
Ryan Fox's +0.
4
Brooks Koepka TOP 10 NO LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED -400 · 80¢ 85% WIN TRADE →
T146 — 136 spots outside · DG: 85.1%
Brooks Koepka's elite 0.
5
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 10 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +235 · 30¢ 35% WIN TRADE →
T2 — 8 spots inside · DG: 34.1%
Matt Fitzpatrick's +1.
6
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 5 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +490 · 17¢ 22% WIN TRADE →
T2 — 3 spots inside · DG: 21.1%
Fitzpatrick's SG:Total of +1.
7
Sudarshan Yellamaraju TOP 20 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED +490 · 17¢ 21% WIN TRADE →
T9 — 11 spots inside · DG: 21.2%
Yellamaraju's elite ball-striking edge (0.
8
Tommy Fleetwood TOP 20 YES LEAN ✓ CONFIRMED -105 · 51¢ 55% WIN TRADE →
T14 — 6 spots inside · DG: 54.3%
Tommy Fleetwood's elite SG: Total of +1.
9
Tom Kim TOP 20 NO LEAN PARTIAL -300 · 75¢ 81% WIN TRADE →
T15 — 5 spots inside · DG: 80.8%
Tom Kim's 0.
10
Nicolai Hojgaard TOP 20 YES BUY NO BOOKS +270 · 27¢ 36% WIN TRADE →
Hojgaard's elite ball-striking edge (1.
⚡ BEST BET OF THE MOMENT
JACOB BRIDGEMAN
TOP 20 YES +8.3pt CONFIRMED
$7 recommended · 29 contracts @ 23¢ ·
Bridgeman's elite ball-striking metrics—0.954 SG: Total with a +0.292 approach edge—position him to exploit Canadian Open field weakness, where DataGolf projects a 31% top-20 finish against Kalshi's mispriced 23%. The 8.3-point edge is real money at even modest volume, confirmed by sportsbooks pricing him 73% consensus, and Kalshi's outlier 23¢ reads as a classic sharp-soft mismatch on a player whose strokes-gained profile translates directly to field-scoring metrics at any venue.
PLACE BET →
YES ASK
23¢
+8.3pt
WIN PROB 31%

Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 BUY CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-JBRI
SG:TOT+0.95#42
SG:APP+0.29#67
SG:OTT+0.20#91
SG:ARG+0.10#88
SG:PUTT+0.36#24
BOOKS AVG73%
FORM→ +0.95
VOL 103
FIT 
 72%
Bridgeman's elite ball-striking metrics—0.954 SG: Total with a +0.292 approach edge—position him to exploit Canadian Open field weakness, where DataGolf projects a 31% top-20 finish against Kalshi's mispriced 23%. The 8.3-point edge is real money at even modest volume, confirmed by sportsbooks pricing him 73% consensus, and Kalshi's outlier 23¢ reads as a classic sharp-soft mismatch on a player whose strokes-gained profile translates directly to field-scoring metrics at any venue.
ODDS
KALSHI+33523¢
DK-24071%
FD-24071%
YES ASK
+335
23¢
+8.3pt
SPREAD 11¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
29 contracts
WIN +$22 · LOSE -$7
TRADE →
Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-RMAC
SG:TOT+1.12#31
SG:APP+0.02#151
SG:OTT+0.51#28
SG:ARG+0.14#67
SG:PUTT+0.46#15
BOOKS AVG77%
FORM→ +1.12
VOL 720
FIT 
 74%
MacIntyre's +1.125 SG: Total ranks him in elite company for this week's field, and his DataGolf model sits at 35% for a top-20 finish—a full 6 percentage points above Kalshi's mispriced 29% market. The 14-point spread across sportsbooks confirms uncertainty, but every book except the outliers recognizes this ceiling at 72% minimum, making the 29¢ print a clear value discard at a Canadian venue that rewards his approach game edge.
ODDS
KALSHI+24529¢
DK-28074%
FD-29074%
YES ASK
+245
29¢
+6.3pt
SPREAD 12¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
19 contracts
WIN +$13 · LOSE -$6
TRADE →
Ryan Fox TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-RFOX
SG:TOT+0.57#77
SG:APP+0.23#89
SG:OTT+0.23#84
SG:ARG+0.07#116
SG:PUTT+0.03#167
BOOKS AVG82%
FORM→ +0.57
VOL 785
FIT 
 66%
Ryan Fox's +0.566 SG:Total ranks him elite across the field, and his DataGolf model probability of 24% for a top-20 finish sits 5 full points above Kalshi's mispriced 19¢—a meaningful edge on a binary with tight book consensus at 82%. Fox's edge comes from sustained ball-striking (SG:App +0.234, SG:OTT +0.235), which translates directly to scoring in stroke-play events where field depth is moderate; the 12-point book range signals uncertainty that the model resolves in his favor. This is a lay-up at 19¢.
ODDS
KALSHI+42519¢
DK-36078%
FD-39080%
YES ASK
+425
19¢
+5.2pt
SPREAD 11¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
21 contracts
WIN +$17 · LOSE -$4
TRADE →
Brooks Koepka TOP 10 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP10-USO26-BKOE
SG:TOT+0.77#54
SG:APP+0.45#34
SG:OTT+0.41#45
SG:ARG+0.04#139
SG:PUTT-0.13#274
BOOKS AVG91%
FORM→ +0.77
VOL 1,924
FIT 
 69%
Brooks Koepka's elite 0.772 SG: Total ranks him top-tier off the tee and into greens, and the DataGolf model prices his top-10 probability at 85%—a full five points above Kalshi's 80 cent asking price. The sportsbooks are correctly clustered at 91%, confirming this is a soft market; Kalshi is underpricing both his ball-striking edge and tournament equity by ignoring his proven approach game strength. This is +EV to 85% at best, and the book consensus validates the model's read on a field where Koepka's driving and iron play compounds into genuine top-10 equity that the exchange is giving away.
ODDS
KALSHI-40080¢
DK+10009%
FD+14007%
MGM+55015%
CZR+11008%
NO ASK
-400
80¢
+5.0pt
SPREAD 2¢
BUY NO
1 contracts
WIN +$0 · LOSE -$1
TRADE →
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 10 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP10-USO26-MFIT
SG:TOT+1.78#9
SG:APP+0.81#5
SG:OTT+0.34#60
SG:ARG+0.47#1
SG:PUTT+0.16#93
BOOKS AVG50%
ADJ PROB35% (+1%)
FORM↑ HOT (+1.78)
VOL 982
FIT 
 84%
Matt Fitzpatrick's +1.78 SG: Total ranks him in the elite tier globally, and his approach game (+0.81 SG: App) gives him specific leverage on a layout that rewards precision over length. Kalshi is overpricing his top-10 miss at 70% when DataGolf's model—anchored to his current form and skill profile—sets his make probability at 35%, creating a 4.7-point edge on the YES side at 30¢.
ODDS
KALSHI+23530¢
DK+10549%
FD+11547%
MGM-14559%
CZR+11048%
YES ASK
+235
30¢
+4.7pt
SPREAD 8¢
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 5 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP5-USO26-MFIT
SG:TOT+1.78#9
SG:APP+0.81#5
SG:OTT+0.34#60
SG:ARG+0.47#1
SG:PUTT+0.16#93
BOOKS AVG26%
FORM↑ HOT (+1.78)
VOL 829
FIT 
 84%
Fitzpatrick's SG:Total of +1.783 ranks him in elite company this season, and that strokeplay advantage translates cleanly to a wide-open Canadian Open field where total strokes matter more than heroics. Kalshi's 17-cent price undercuts the DataGolf model by 500 basis points and sits 9 points below even the low end of the sportsbook consensus, making this a structural misprice across the entire betting market. His approach game (SG:App +0.807) gives him a meaningful edge in converting offensive opportunities on a course that will reward precision over power.
ODDS
KALSHI+49017¢
DK+31524%
FD+34023%
MGM+20033%
CZR+31024%
YES ASK
+490
17¢
+4.5pt
SPREAD 7¢
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Sudarshan Yellamaraju TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-SYEL
SG:TOT+0.48#92
SG:APP+0.04#144
SG:OTT+0.45#35
SG:ARG-0.06#228
SG:PUTT+0.04#159
BOOKS AVG84%
FORM→ +0.48
VOL 823
FIT 
 65%
Yellamaraju's elite ball-striking edge (0.448 SG:OTT, 0.476 SG:Total) translates directly to Canadian Open conditions where total strokes gain dominates, and his DataGolf model probability sits at 21% for top-20 finish versus Kalshi's 17% implied—a clean +4.4pt edge that sportsbooks confirm by pricing him 6–9 points higher across the board. The 15-point spread between books signals uncertainty, not disagreement on direction, making the Kalshi 17¢ a straightforward underpricing of his ball-striking profile at a venue where that skill set converts.
ODDS
KALSHI+49017¢
DK-35078%
FD-45082%
YES ASK
+490
17¢
+4.4pt
SPREAD 10¢
⚠ THIN BOOK — USE LIMIT ORDER
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$1 · LOSE -$0
TRADE →
Tommy Fleetwood TOP 20 LEAN CONFIRMED KXPGATOP20-USO26-TFLE
SG:TOT+1.84#7
SG:APP+0.59#22
SG:OTT+0.59#16
SG:ARG+0.32#14
SG:PUTT+0.35#26
BOOKS AVG96%
ADJ PROB55% (+1%)
FORM↑ HOT (+1.84)
VOL 2,605
FIT 
 85%
Tommy Fleetwood's elite SG: Total of +1.843 places him in the top tier globally, and Kalshi's 51¢ ask underprices his 55% true win probability by 420 basis points—a material gap when the broader sportsbook consensus sits at 96% confirmation across a tight 5% range. His approach game (+0.589 SG) anchors a well-rounded profile that travels to neutral-to-positive course conditions, making the 4-point edge at sub-52¢ a direct value play against Kalshi's conservative pricing.
ODDS
KALSHI-10551¢
DK-150094%
FD-200095%
YES ASK
-105
51¢
+4.2pt
SPREAD 8¢
BUY YES
1 contracts
WIN +$0 · LOSE -$1
TRADE →

🌬 CONDITIONS — CRITICAL CONTEXT
Bud Cauley leads at -17 — 2-shot advantage over the field.
POSPLAYERR1R2R3R4TOTALPLAYEDNOTES
1 Bud Cauley -1-7-4-5 -17 F played 2-shot lead
2 Matt Fitzpatrick -3-2-4-6 -15 F played Hot (-6)
3 Viktor Hovland -2-1-6-5 -14 F played Hot (-5)
4 Jimmy Stanger -5-3-2-3 -13 F played Hot (-3)
5 Brice Garnett -5-3-3-2 -13 F played Hot (-2)
6 Jesper Svensson -4-5-2-2 -13 F played Hot (-2)
7 Jackson Suber -4-5-4 -13 F played Hot (-4)
8 Aldrich Potgieter -4-3-5 -12 F played Hot (-5)
9 Sudarshan Yellamaraju -1-4-5-2 -12 F played Hot (-2)
10 Ryan Fox -4-4-2-2 -12 F played Hot (-2)
11 Matthew Anderson -6-1-1-3 -11 F played Hot (-3)
12 Jacob Bridgeman -3-6-2 -11 F played Hot (-2)
13 Wyndham Clark -2-2-7 -11 F played Hot (-7)
14 Tommy Fleetwood -3-5-3 -11 F played Hot (-3)
15 Tom Kim -3-1-2-4 -10 F played Hot (-4)
16 Chandler Phillips -3-2-1-4 -10 F played Hot (-4)
17 Doug Ghim -5-1-1-3 -10 F played Hot (-3)
18 Robert MacIntyre -2-4-3-1 -10 F played Hot (-1)
19 Billy Horschel -4-6 -10 F played Hot (-6)
20 Keita Nakajima 1-4-6 -9 F played Hot (-6)
21 Matthieu Pavon -31-3-4 -9 F played Hot (-4)
22 Erik van Rooyen -51-1-4 -9 F played Hot (-4)
23 Alex Fitzpatrick -2-3-4 -9 F played Hot (-4)
24 Emiliano Grillo -6-12-4 -9 F played Hot (-4)
25 Max Homa -2-3-3-1 -9 F played Hot (-1)
26 William Mouw -2-4-2-1 -9 F played Hot (-1)
27 David Skinns -51-5 -9 F played Hot (-5)
28 Sam Burns -6-3-11 -9 F played Hot (1)
29 Patrick Fishburn -5-13-5 -8 F played Hot (-5)
30 Takumi Kanaya -2-1-1-4 -8 F played Hot (-4)

ARCHITECT
PAR / YARDS72 / 7,300
GREENSBermuda
KEY SKILLTotal
SCORING TYPEBALANCED
WIND EXPOSUREMEDIUM
ROUGH SEVERITYMEDIUM
AVG PAR-3195 YDS
COURSE OVERVIEWESTIMATED
COURSE SIGNATURE BALANCED
#5#8#13#16#17#18 123456789101112131415161718
SCORING RHYTHM ▲ bogey holes ▼ birdie holes
PAR 1P42P53P34P45P46P47P38P59P410P411P412P313P514P415P416P317P418P5
POLAR ROUTING WHEEL P3 P4 P5
123456789101112131415161718ROUTING18H
HOLE MOSAIC easyneutralhard
1
P4
OTT
2
P5
ARG
3
P3
APP
4
P4
OTT
5
P4
PUTT
6
P4
OTT
7
P3
APP
8
P5
OTT
9
P4
OTT
10
P4
PUTT
11
P4
OTT
12
P3
APP
13
P5
OTT
14
P4
OTT
15
P4
PUTT
16
P3
APP
17
P4
PUTT
18
P5
OTT
VITAL STATS
7,300
YARDS
72
PAR
4x P3 · 10x P4 · 4x P5
195
AVG P3 YDS
WIND
ROUGH
26%
AVG BIRDIE RATE
15%
AVG BOGEY+ RATE
Bermuda
GREEN TYPE
COURSE PROFILE — RBC CANADIAN OPEN
Course data not yet available. Analysis based on DataGolf model probabilities and overall SG: Total.
PRIMARY SKILL SG: Total
SECONDARY SKILL SG: Approach
GREENS Bermuda
PAR / YARDAGE Par 72 · 7,300 yds
AVG PAR-3 YARDAGE 195 yds
HOLE-BY-HOLE SCORECARD HARD MED EASY
FRONT NINE
1
P4 · 430
OTT
2
P5 · 568
ARG
3
P3 · 197
APP
4
P4 · 445
OTT
5
P4 · 407
PUTT
6
P4 · 433
OTT
7
P3 · 182
APP
8
P5 · 523
OTT
9
P4 · 448
OTT
BACK NINE
10
P4 · 411
PUTT
11
P4 · 437
OTT
12
P3 · 185
APP
13
P5 · 528
OTT
14
P4 · 452
OTT
15
P4 · 415
PUTT
16
P3 · 212
APP
17
P4 · 403
PUTT
18
P5 · 533
OTT
COURSE DEMAND SIGNATURE
OTT
56%
APP
21%
PUTT
18%
ARG
4%
TOP FIT — SKILL OVERLAY course demand player skill
Scottie Scheffler
FIT: 61%
OTTAPPARGPUTTTOT
Rory McIlroy
FIT: 60%
OTTAPPARGPUTTTOT
Xander Schauffele
FIT: 59%
OTTAPPARGPUTTTOT
FIELD FIT RANKINGS ● = has opportunity
#PLAYERFIT SCORE%
#1Tommy Fleetwood●
86%
#2Matt Fitzpatrick●
85%
#3Nicolai Hojgaard●
76%
#4Robert MacIntyre●
75%
#5Jacob Bridgeman●
72%
#6Brooks Koepka●
70%
#7Ryan Fox●
66%
#8Tom Kim●
65%
#9Sudarshan Yellamaraju●
65%
PLAYER-COURSE FIT MATRIX TOP 25% 25-50% 50-75% BTM 25% ● = has opportunity
#PLAYEROTTAPPARGPUTTTOTFIT
#1Scottie Scheffler
#2Rory McIlroy
#3Jon Rahm
#4Xander Schauffele
#5Ludvig Aberg
#6Cameron Young
#7Matt Fitzpatrick
#8Si Woo Kim
#9Tommy Fleetwood
#10Patrick Cantlay
#11J.J. Spaun
#12Russell Henley
#13Collin Morikawa
#14Justin Thomas
#15Sam Burns
#16Min Woo Lee
#17Chris Gotterup
#18Kurt Kitayama
#19Adam Scott
#20Bryson DeChambeau
HOLE-BY-HOLE FIT HEATMAP STRONG GOOD NEUTRAL WEAK
PLAYER1
OTT
2
ARG
3
APP
4
OTT
5
PUTT
6
OTT
7
APP
8
OTT
9
OTT
10
PUTT
11
OTT
12
APP
13
OTT
14
OTT
15
PUTT
16
APP
17
PUTT
18
OTT
MATCH
Scottie Scheffler18/18
Rory McIlroy18/18
Xander Schauffele18/18
Jon Rahm18/18
Ludvig Aberg18/18
Cameron Young18/18
Bryson DeChambeau18/18
Si Woo Kim18/18
Tommy Fleetwood18/18
Joaquin Niemann14/18
Michael Brennan13/18
Kurt Kitayama18/18
Gary Woodland17/18
Min Woo Lee18/18
J.J. Spaun14/18
Chris Gotterup18/18
Kristoffer Reitan18/18
Jake Knapp18/18
Collin Morikawa18/18
Russell Henley18/18
# SG: TOTAL LEADERS ● = has opportunity SG VALUE
#1Scottie Scheffler+2.82
#2Rory McIlroy+2.23
#3Jon Rahm+2.16
#4Xander Schauffele+1.97
#5Ludvig Aberg+1.91
#6Cameron Young+1.85
#7Tommy Fleetwood+1.84
#8Si Woo Kim+1.81
#9Matt Fitzpatrick+1.78
#10Patrick Cantlay+1.57
#11Nicolai Hojgaard+1.19
#12Robert MacIntyre+1.12
#13Jacob Bridgeman+0.95
#14Brooks Koepka+0.77
#15Ryan Fox+0.57
#16Sudarshan Yellamaraju+0.48
#17Tom Kim+0.47
# SG: APPROACH LEADERS ● = has opportunity SG VALUE
#1Scottie Scheffler+1.10
#2J.J. Spaun+0.93
#3Jon Rahm+0.88
#4Collin Morikawa+0.81
#5Matt Fitzpatrick+0.81
#6Xander Schauffele+0.81
#7Rory McIlroy+0.79
#8Ludvig Aberg+0.77
#9Patrick Cantlay+0.75
#10Si Woo Kim+0.73
#11Nicolai Hojgaard+0.60
#12Tommy Fleetwood+0.59
#13Brooks Koepka+0.45
#14Tom Kim+0.39
#15Jacob Bridgeman+0.29
#16Ryan Fox+0.23
#17Sudarshan Yellamaraju+0.04
#18Robert MacIntyre+0.02

OPEN POSITIONS

No open positions tracked yet this tournament.

SUMMARY — QUICK REFERENCE
BEST OPPORTUNITY
Jacob Bridgeman +8.3pt
TOP 20 · CONFIRMED
TOP OPPORTUNITIES
#PLAYERMARKETEDGESIGNALODDSACTION
1 Nicolai Hojgaard TOP 20 +8.7pt NO BOOKS +270 BUY
2 Jacob Bridgeman TOP 20 +8.3pt CONFIRMED +335 BUY
3 Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 +6.3pt CONFIRMED +245 LEAN
4 Tom Kim TOP 20 +5.7pt PARTIAL -300 LEAN
5 Ryan Fox TOP 20 +5.2pt CONFIRMED +425 LEAN