RBC Canadian Open · Live Report

⚠DATA SOURCE DEGRADEDINVESTIGATE IMMEDIATELY
DataGolf predictions unavailable

PRE LIVE POST

PLAYS FOUND

CONFIRMED SIGNALS

AVG EDGE

4.7pt

BEST EDGE

+4.7pt

KEY ·STRONG BUY≥ 15pt edgeBUY8–15pt edgeLEAN4–8pt edgeFADEoverpriced — avoidPASSno edge

#	RANK	PLAYER	PLAY	PRICE / SIDE	IMPLIED	WIN PROB	BOOKS AVG	EDGE	SIGNAL	CONTRACTS	TODAY
1	★☆☆☆☆	Viktor HovlandTOP 10	LEAN	-355 78¢ NO	78%	83% bet wins	78% (76%–82%)	+4.7pt	PARTIAL	1	—

Viktor Hovland TOP 10 NO LEAN PARTIAL -355 · 78¢ 83% WIN TRADE →

T34 — 24 spots outside · DG: 82.9%

Viktor Hovland's 1.

Viktor Hovland TOP 10 LEAN +4.7pt PARTIAL

▲ COLLAPSE

Viktor Hovland's elite SG: Total profile (1.148, top 5 globally) makes him a legitimate course-agnostic threat at any venue, and the Canadian Open presents no structural headwinds to his game. His SG: Approach strength (0.628) is the primary driver—he's consistently gaining strokes on the field's best iron players, which translates across all competitive setups. The DataGolf model slots him at 83% top-10 probability, anchored in his sustained ball-striking edge and ability to convert that into consistent finishes. At a venue where we lack granular course fit data, pure skill metrics become decisive, and Hovland's strokes-gained profile is among the tour's most durable.

The Kalshi market is pricing Hovland's top-10 miss at 22%, implying a 78% success rate—a notable undercut from the 83% model probability. The consensus sits at 78%, suggesting the market has already absorbed some skepticism, yet multiple sportsbooks remain in the 80–82% range on related props. This 4.7-point edge indicates the market is overcounting tail-risk scenarios (injury, sudden form collapse, weather volatility) without sufficient respect for Hovland's baseline skill. The gap is real but modest, suggesting the market isn't dramatically mispriced—just slightly conservative.

The primary risk is that Hovland's recent form might be masking micro-level fatigue or swing adjustments we can't detect in SG data. Additionally, his putting (0.11 SG: Putt) remains a genuine liability in close finishes; if the course rewards precision wedge play but penalizes missed makeable putts, his top-10 odds could compress on Sunday. A crowded, deep field where eight players are also in the 80%+ probability band could also mean fewer finishes—positional risk that raw models sometimes underweight.

Viktor Hovland TOP 10 LEAN PARTIAL KXPGATOP10-RBBCAN26-VHOV

SG:TOT+1.15#30

● LIVE SG

BOOKS AVG78%

R1 TEE7:55 AM #10 (early)

WITHFitzpatrick / Yellamaraju

FORM→ +1.15

VOL 4,038

FIT

75%

Viktor Hovland's 1.148 SG: Total ranks elite across the field, and DataGolf's 83% top-10 probability sits 5 percentage points above the 78% Kalshi price, creating a +4.7pt edge that sportsbooks have yet to fully respect despite a narrow 5% range suggesting uncertainty. His approach game (0.628 SG: App) drives the bulk of his advantage at a venue where total strokes gained matters most, and this advantage compounds across 72 holes in a field without a clear dominant favorite. The consensus line at 78% reveals the market hasn't adjusted to Hovland's recent form advantage, and the bet is layered correctly into an underpriced no at minus odds.

ODDS

KALSHI-35578¢

DK+36522%

FD+43019%

MGM+33523%

CZR+36022%

NO ASK

-355

78¢

+4.7pt

SPREAD 1¢

BUY NO
1 contracts
WIN +$0 · LOSE -$1

TRADE →

#	PLAYER	MARKET	SIDE	PRICE	IMPLIED	MODEL	BOOKS	EDGE	RATING
1	Viktor Hovland	TOP 10	NO	78¢	78%	83%	78%	+4.7pt	LEAN

Viktor Hovland TOP 10 NO +4.7pt ◐ PARTIAL

T34 — 24 spots outside · DG: 82.9%

TRADE →

TRADE THE EDGE

Open an account and start trading prediction markets today.

TRADE ON KALSHI — GET $25

No actionable plays right now. Edges found but payout ratios are too thin to justify the risk.

🌬 CONDITIONS — CRITICAL CONTEXT

Keith Mitchell leads at E.

LIVE·LAST UPDATED: Jun 9, 2026 6:31 PM ET

POS	PLAYER	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOTAL	PLAYED	NOTES
1	Keith Mitchell	—	—	—	—	E	— played	Co-leader
2	Ben Silverman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
3	Kevin Roy	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
4	Dylan Wu	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
5	Matti Schmid	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
6	Mac Meissner	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
7	Danny Willett	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
8	Roger Sloan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
9	Justin Lower	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
10	Austin Smotherman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
11	Hank Lebioda	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
12	Danny Walker	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
13	Rafael Campos	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
14	Peter Malnati	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
15	Sam Ryder	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
16	Matt Wallace	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
17	Max McGreevy	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
18	Takumi Kanaya	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
19	Justin Rose	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
20	Tony Finau	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
21	Collin Morikawa	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
22	Aaron Rai	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
23	Garrick Higgo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
24	Michael Brennan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
25	Charley Hoffman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
26	Tommy Fleetwood	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
27	Corey Conners	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
28	Sahith Theegala	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
29	William Mouw	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
30	Karl Vilips	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
31	Billy Horschel	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
32	Chris Kirk	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
33	Matt Fitzpatrick	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
34	Viktor Hovland	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
35	Davis Thompson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
36	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
37	Lucas Glover	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
38	Stephan Jaeger	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
39	Taylor Pendrith	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
40	Ricky Castillo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
41	Joe Highsmith	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
42	Jacob Bridgeman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
43	Camilo Villegas	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
44	Bud Cauley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
45	Lanto Griffin	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
46	Denny McCarthy	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
47	Taylor Moore	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
48	Max Greyserman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
49	Brice Garnett	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
50	Thorbjørn Olesen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
51	Beau Hossler	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
52	Adam Svensson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
53	Matthieu Pavon	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
54	Lee Hodges	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
55	Daniel Brown	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
56	David Skinns	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
57	Paul Waring	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
58	Zach Bauchou	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
59	Laurent Desmarchais	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
60	Eric Zhao	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
61	Yohann Benson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
62	Hayden Springer	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
63	Joey Savoie	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
64	Kensei Hirata	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
65	A.J. Ewart	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
66	Luke Clanton	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
67	Zecheng Dou	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
68	Jimmy Stanger	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
69	Kris Ventura	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
70	Pontus Nyholm	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
71	Ashton McCulloch	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
72	Calen Sanderson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
73	Padraig Harrington	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
74	Emiliano Grillo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
75	Séamus Power	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
76	Erik van Rooyen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
77	Chad Ramey	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
78	Vince Whaley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
79	Mike Weir	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
80	Ben Martin	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
81	Andrew Putnam	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
82	Adam Hadwin	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
83	Mackenzie Hughes	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
84	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
85	Tom Hoge	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
86	Eric Cole	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
87	Rico Hoey	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
88	Michael Thorbjornsen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
89	Chandler Phillips	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
90	Nick Dunlap	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
91	Nick Taylor	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
92	Alex Noren	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
93	Ryan Fox	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
94	Brooks Koepka	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
95	Brian Campbell	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
96	Cam Davis	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
97	Jhonattan Vegas	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
98	Max Homa	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
99	Sam Burns	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
100	Wyndham Clark	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
101	Kristoffer Reitan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
102	Steven Fisk	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
103	Shane Lowry	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
104	Adam Schenk	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
105	Robert MacIntyre	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
106	Alex Fitzpatrick	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
107	Harry Hall	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
108	Aldrich Potgieter	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
109	Joel Dahmen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
110	Mark Hubbard	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
111	Davis Riley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
112	Nicolai Højgaard	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
113	Kevin Yu	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
114	Johnny Keefer	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
115	Patton Kizzire	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
116	David Lipsky	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
117	Jordan Smith	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
118	Doug Ghim	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
119	Austin Eckroat	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
120	Tom Kim	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
121	John Parry	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
122	Marcelo Rozo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
123	Jackson Suber	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
124	Ben James	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
125	Neal Shipley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
126	Declan O'Donovan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
127	Haotong Li	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
128	Trace Crowe	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
129	Chandler Blanchet	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
130	Keita Nakajima	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
131	Justin Matthews	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
132	Dawson Lew	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
133	Vince Covello	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
134	Alejandro Tosti	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
135	Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
136	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
137	Davis Chatfield	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
138	Jeevan Sihota	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
139	Sean O'Hair	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
140	Paul Peterson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
141	Drew Nesbitt	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
142	Christo Lamprecht	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
143	Patrick Fishburn	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
144	Jeffrey Kang	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
145	John VanDerLaan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
146	Matthew Anderson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
147	Jesper Svensson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back

TEE TIME	HOLE	PAIRING ● = has opportunity
7:00 AM	#1	Mac Meissner · Matti Schmid · Ben Silverman
7:00 AM	#10	Keith Mitchell · Kevin Roy · Dylan Wu
7:11 AM	#1	Hank Lebioda · Justin Lower · Danny Willett
7:11 AM	#10	Roger Sloan · Austin Smotherman · Danny Walker
7:22 AM	#1	Rafael Campos · Max McGreevy · Sam Ryder
7:22 AM	#10	Takumi Kanaya · Peter Malnati · Matt Wallace
7:33 AM	#1	Michael Brennan · Tony Finau · Garrick Higgo
7:33 AM	#10	Collin Morikawa · Aaron Rai · Justin Rose
7:44 AM	#10	Corey Conners · Tommy Fleetwood · Sahith Theegala
7:44 AM	#1	Charley Hoffman · William Mouw · Karl Vilips
7:55 AM	#10	Matt Fitzpatrick · Viktor Hovland · Sudarshan Yellamaraju
7:55 AM	#1	Billy Horschel · Chris Kirk · Davis Thompson
8:06 AM	#10	Jacob Bridgeman · Stephan Jaeger · Taylor Pendrith
8:06 AM	#1	Ricky Castillo · Lucas Glover · Joe Highsmith
8:17 AM	#10	Bud Cauley · Max Greyserman · Denny McCarthy
8:17 AM	#1	Lanto Griffin · Taylor Moore · Camilo Villegas
8:28 AM	#1	Brice Garnett · Lee Hodges · Beau Hossler
8:28 AM	#10	Thorbjorn Olesen · Matthieu Pavon · Adam Svensson
8:39 AM	#1	Zach Bauchou · Laurent Desmarchais · Paul Waring
8:39 AM	#10	Dan Brown · David Skinns · Eric Zhao
8:50 AM	#10	Yohann Benson · Kensei Hirata · Hayden Springer
8:50 AM	#1	Luke Clanton · A.J. Ewart · Joey Savoie
9:01 AM	#10	Zecheng Dou · Ashton McCulloch · Kris Ventura
9:01 AM	#1	Pontus Nyholm · Calen Sanderson · Jimmy Stanger
12:15 PM	#1	Emiliano Grillo · Padraig Harrington · Erik Van Rooyen
12:15 PM	#10	Seamus Power · Chad Ramey · Vince Whaley
12:26 PM	#10	Christiaan Bezuidenhout · Ben Martin · Andrew Putnam
12:26 PM	#1	Adam Hadwin · Mackenzie Hughes · Mike Weir
12:37 PM	#1	Eric Cole · Chandler Phillips · Michael Thorbjornsen
12:37 PM	#10	Nick Dunlap · Rico Hoey · Tom Hoge
12:48 PM	#10	Brian Campbell · Cam Davis · Alex Noren
12:48 PM	#1	Ryan Fox · Brooks Koepka · Nick Taylor
12:59 PM	#1	Sam Burns · Wyndham Clark · Kristoffer Reitan
12:59 PM	#10	Steven Fisk · Max Homa · Jhonattan Vegas
1:10 PM	#1	Alex Fitzpatrick · Shane Lowry · Robert MacIntyre
1:10 PM	#10	Harry Hall · Aldrich Potgieter · Adam Schenk
1:21 PM	#10	Joel Dahmen · Mark Hubbard · Johnny Keefer
1:21 PM	#1	Nicolai Hojgaard · Davis Riley · Kevin Yu
1:32 PM	#10	Austin Eckroat · Tom Kim · Jordan Smith
1:32 PM	#1	Doug Ghim · Patton Kizzire · David Lipsky
1:43 PM	#10	Ben James · Neal Shipley · Jackson Suber
1:43 PM	#1	Declan O'Donovan · John Parry · Marcelo Rozo
1:54 PM	#1	Chandler Blanchet · Haotong Li · Justin Matthews
1:54 PM	#10	Trace Crowe · Dawson Lew · Keita Nakajima
2:05 PM	#10	Davis Chatfield · Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen · Jeevan Sihota
2:05 PM	#1	Vince Covello · Adrien Dumont De Chassart · Alejandro Tosti
2:16 PM	#1	Patrick Fishburn · Drew Nesbitt · Paul Peterson
2:16 PM	#10	Jeffrey Kang · Christo Lamprecht · Sean O'Hair
2:27 PM	#10	Matthew Anderson · Jesper Svensson · John VanDerLaan

ARCHITECT—

PAR / YARDS72 / 7,300

GREENSBermuda

KEY SKILLTotal

SCORING TYPEBALANCED

WIND EXPOSUREMEDIUM

ROUGH SEVERITYMEDIUM

AVG PAR-3195 YDS

    COURSE OVERVIEWESTIMATED
  

COURSE SIGNATURE BALANCED

SCORING RHYTHM ▲ bogey holes ▼ birdie holes

POLAR ROUTING WHEEL P3 P4 P5

HOLE MOSAIC easy → neutral → hard

OTT

ARG

APP

OTT

PUTT

OTT

APP

OTT

PUTT

OTT

APP

OTT

PUTT

APP

PUTT

OTT

VITAL STATS

7,300

YARDS

PAR

    4x P3 ·
    10x P4 ·
    4x P5
  

195

AVG P3 YDS

WIND

ROUGH

26%

AVG BIRDIE RATE

15%

AVG BOGEY+ RATE

Bermuda

GREEN TYPE

COURSE PROFILE — RBC CANADIAN OPEN

Course data not yet available. Analysis based on DataGolf model probabilities and overall SG: Total.

PRIMARY SKILL SG: Total

SECONDARY SKILL SG: Approach

GREENS Bermuda

PAR / YARDAGE Par 72 · 7,300 yds

AVG PAR-3 YARDAGE 195 yds

    HOLE-BY-HOLE SCORECARD
    
       HARD
       MED
       EASY

FRONT NINE

P4 · 430

OTT

P5 · 568

ARG

P3 · 197

APP

P4 · 445

OTT

P4 · 407

PUTT

P4 · 433

OTT

P3 · 182

APP

P5 · 523

OTT

P4 · 448

OTT

BACK NINE

P4 · 411

PUTT

P4 · 437

OTT

P3 · 185

APP

P5 · 528

OTT

P4 · 452

OTT

P4 · 415

PUTT

P3 · 212

APP

P4 · 403

PUTT

P5 · 533

OTT

    COURSE DEMAND SIGNATURE
  

OTT

56%

APP

21%

PUTT

18%

ARG

    TOP FIT — SKILL OVERLAY
    
      ■ course demand
      ■ player skill

Scottie Scheffler

FIT: 61%

Rory McIlroy

FIT: 60%

Xander Schauffele

FIT: 59%

    FIELD FIT RANKINGS ● = has opportunity
  

#	PLAYER	FIT SCORE	%
#1	Viktor Hovland●		75%

    PLAYER-COURSE FIT MATRIX
    
       TOP 25%
       25-50%
       50-75%
       BTM 25%
    
    ● = has opportunity
  

#	PLAYER	OTT	APP	ARG	PUTT	TOT	FIT
#1	Scottie Scheffler
#2	Rory McIlroy
#3	Jon Rahm
#4	Xander Schauffele
#5	Ludvig Aberg
#6	Cameron Young
#7	Matt Fitzpatrick
#8	Si Woo Kim
#9	Tommy Fleetwood
#10	Patrick Cantlay
#11	J.J. Spaun
#12	Russell Henley
#13	Collin Morikawa
#14	Justin Thomas
#15	Sam Burns
#16	Min Woo Lee
#17	Chris Gotterup
#18	Kurt Kitayama
#19	Adam Scott
#20	Bryson DeChambeau

    HOLE-BY-HOLE FIT HEATMAP
    
       STRONG
       GOOD
       NEUTRAL
       WEAK
    
  

PLAYER	1 OTT	2 ARG	3 APP	4 OTT	5 PUTT	6 OTT	7 APP	8 OTT	9 OTT	10 PUTT	11 OTT	12 APP	13 OTT	14 OTT	15 PUTT	16 APP	17 PUTT	18 OTT	MATCH
Scottie Scheffler																			18/18
Rory McIlroy																			18/18
Xander Schauffele																			18/18
Jon Rahm																			18/18
Ludvig Aberg																			18/18
Cameron Young																			18/18
Bryson DeChambeau																			18/18
Si Woo Kim																			18/18
Tommy Fleetwood																			18/18
Joaquin Niemann																			14/18
Michael Brennan																			13/18
Kurt Kitayama																			18/18
Gary Woodland																			17/18
Min Woo Lee																			18/18
J.J. Spaun																			14/18
Chris Gotterup																			18/18
Kristoffer Reitan																			18/18
Jake Knapp																			18/18
Collin Morikawa																			18/18
Russell Henley																			18/18

#	SG: TOTAL LEADERS ● = has opportunity	SG VALUE
#1	Scottie Scheffler	+2.82
#2	Rory McIlroy	+2.23
#3	Jon Rahm	+2.16
#4	Xander Schauffele	+1.97
#5	Ludvig Aberg	+1.91
#6	Cameron Young	+1.85
#7	Tommy Fleetwood	+1.84
#8	Si Woo Kim	+1.81
#9	Matt Fitzpatrick	+1.78
#10	Patrick Cantlay	+1.57
#11	Viktor Hovland	+1.15

#	SG: APPROACH LEADERS ● = has opportunity	SG VALUE
#1	Scottie Scheffler	+1.10
#2	J.J. Spaun	+0.93
#3	Jon Rahm	+0.88
#4	Collin Morikawa	+0.81
#5	Matt Fitzpatrick	+0.81
#6	Xander Schauffele	+0.81
#7	Rory McIlroy	+0.79
#8	Ludvig Aberg	+0.77
#9	Patrick Cantlay	+0.75
#10	Si Woo Kim	+0.73
#11	Viktor Hovland	+0.63

OPEN POSITIONS

No open positions tracked yet this tournament.