VidantaWorld Mexico Open

⚠DATA SOURCE DEGRADEDINVESTIGATE IMMEDIATELY
DataGolf predictions unavailable

PRE LIVE POST

PLAYS FOUND

CONFIRMED SIGNALS

AVG EDGE

12.1pt

BEST EDGE

+12.1pt

KEY ·STRONG BUY≥ 15pt edgeBUY8–15pt edgeLEAN4–8pt edgeFADEoverpriced — avoidPASSno edge

#	RANK	PLAYER	PLAY	PRICE / SIDE	IMPLIED	WIN PROB	BOOKS AVG	EDGE	SIGNAL	CONTRACTS	TODAY
1	★★★☆☆	Adrien Dumont De ChassartMAKE CUT THIN MARKET	BUY	-105 51¢ YES	51%	63% bet wins	64% (62%–65%) TIGHT	+12.1pt	NO BOOKS	20	—

Adrien Dumont De Chassart MAKE CUT YES BUY NO BOOKS -105 · 51¢ 63% WIN THIN MARKET TRADE →

T112 — 47 spots outside · DG: 62.8%

Dumont De Chassart's +0.209 strokes gained around-the-green and elite putting (+0.362) directly counter the venue's demand for approach precision—his negative…

Adrien Dumont De Chassart MAKE CUT BUY +12.1pt NO BOOKS

▲ COLLAPSE

Dumont de Chassart's skill set is tailor-made for Vidanta Vallarta's demands. His SG:Approach of -0.139 and elite short-game edge (SG:ARG +0.209, SG:Putt +0.362) represent his two greatest strengths, and both are currency at a tropical resort course where approach precision into tight Bermuda greens and conversion efficiency separate field. The tight fairways and water will punish poor ball-striking (his SG:OTT sits at -0.595), but at Vallarta, the player who hits greens and makes putts advances—exactly the profile Dumont de Chassart has shown. His overall SG:Total of -0.163 masks a player whose strengths cluster precisely where this venue rewards them most.

Kalshi is pricing his make-cut probability at 51%, implying near coin-flip odds, while our model calculates 63%—a 12.1-point edge that reflects genuine inefficiency. The consensus sits at 63%, confirming the gap. Bookmakers have likely underweighted how effectively Dumont de Chassart's short-game prowess converts at a resort layout where ball-striking variance matters less than execution around and on the green. The market is pricing general course risk without properly crediting player-specific skill alignment.

The primary risk is volatility in putting—while his +0.362 SG:Putt is genuine, single-week stroke-gain variance at a new venue can swing sharply. Secondary risk: his SG:OTT weakness means if the fairway rough plays brutally or if wind amplifies accuracy demands, he could face difficult approach shots that even elite short-game play can't fully overcome. Monitor weather and rough depth at first-round practice.

Adrien Dumont De Chassart MAKE CUT BUY NO BOOKS KXPGAMAKECUT-VIMO26-DCHA

SG:TOT-0.16#184

SG:APP-0.14#204

● LIVE SG

BOOKS AVG64%TIGHT

FORM→ -0.16

VOL 50

FIT

59%

Dumont De Chassart's +0.209 strokes gained around-the-green and elite putting (+0.362) directly counter the venue's demand for approach precision—his negative approach mark masks a player who converts scrambles and short-game opportunities at exactly the rate this tropical layout rewards, making the cut on par-4 and par-5 recovery. Kalshi's 51¢ is a clear mispricing against a 63% consensus that books themselves won't touch, and the 12.1-point edge against an overround-free model means the market has undervalued his specific strength-to-course-fit alignment. This is a full-value YES bet at current levels.

ODDS

KALSHI-10551¢

DK-16062%

YES ASK

-105

51¢

+12.1pt

SPREAD 4¢

BUY YES
20 contracts
WIN +$10 · LOSE -$10

TRADE →

#	PLAYER	MARKET	SIDE	PRICE	IMPLIED	MODEL	BOOKS	EDGE	RATING
1	Adrien Dumont De Chassart	MAKE CUT	YES	51¢	51%	63%	64%	+12.1pt	BUY

Adrien Dumont De Chassart MAKE CUT YES +12.1pt NO BOOKS THIN MARKET

T112 — 47 spots outside · DG: 62.8%

Buy 20 contracts at 51¢ · Win +$9.80 / Lose -$10.34

TRADE →

TRADE THE EDGE

Open an account and start trading prediction markets today.

TRADE ON KALSHI — GET $25

No actionable plays right now. Edges found but payout ratios are too thin to justify the risk.

🌬 CONDITIONS — CRITICAL CONTEXT

📡 LIVE: 85.5°F · Wind 5mph SSW (gusts 13) Patton Kizzire leads at E.

LIVE·LAST UPDATED: Oct 27, 2026 2:27 PM ET

POS	PLAYER	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOTAL	PLAYED	NOTES
1	Patton Kizzire	—	—	—	—	E	— played	Co-leader
2	David Lipsky	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
3	Patrick Rodgers	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
4	Denny McCarthy	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
5	Danny Walker	—	—	—	—	E	— played	In contention
6	Austin Eckroat	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
7	Camilo Villegas	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
8	Mark Hubbard	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
9	Erik van Rooyen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
10	Jordan Smith	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
11	Zach Bauchou	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
12	Nick Dunlap	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
13	Aaron Baddeley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
14	Emiliano Grillo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
15	Beau Hossler	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
16	Justin Lower	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
17	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
18	Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
19	Tony Finau	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
20	Max Homa	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
21	Corey Conners	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
22	Taylor Pendrith	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
23	Aaron Wise	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
24	Steven Fisk	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
25	Joel Dahmen	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
26	Davis Riley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
27	Cam Davis	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
28	Andrew Novak	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
29	Ben Griffin	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
30	Aldrich Potgieter	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
31	Ben Martin	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
32	Harry Higgs	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
33	Tyler Duncan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
34	Taylor Moore	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
35	Kevin Roy	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
36	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
37	Peter Malnati	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
38	Chad Ramey	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
39	Rico Hoey	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
40	Hank Lebioda	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
41	Lee Hodges	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
42	Pierceson Coody	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
43	Isaiah Salinda	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
44	Chandler Blanchet	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
45	Cameron Tankersley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
46	Santiago de la Fuente	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
47	A.J. Ewart	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
48	David Ford	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
49	Trace Crowe	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
50	Tayler Termeer	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
51	John VanDerLaan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
52	Trent Phillips	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
53	Kensei Hirata	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
54	Gordon Sargent	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
55	Paul Peterson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
56	Christo Lamprecht	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
57	Marco Penge	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
58	Ben James	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
59	John Daly II	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
60	Eli Ortego	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
61	John Parry	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
62	Andrew Putnam	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
63	Max McGreevy	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
64	Vince Whaley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
65	Takumi Kanaya	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
66	Dylan Wu	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
67	Rafael Campos	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
68	Chan Kim	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
69	Mackenzie Hughes	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
70	Ben Silverman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
71	Zac Blair	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
72	Adam Svensson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
73	Brice Garnett	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
74	David Skinns	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
75	Doug Ghim	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
76	Chandler Phillips	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
77	Jackson Suber	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
78	Johnny Keefer	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
79	Brian Campbell	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
80	Wyndham Clark	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
81	Kevin Yu	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
82	Tom Kim	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
83	Joe Highsmith	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
84	Karl Vilips	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
85	Kevin Streelman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
86	Billy Horschel	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
87	Alvaro Ortiz	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
88	Garrick Higgo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
89	Harry Hall	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
90	William Mouw	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
91	C.T. Pan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
92	Matthieu Pavon	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
93	Max Greyserman	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
94	Rasmus Højgaard	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
95	Will Gordon	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
96	Mac Meissner	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
97	Marcelo Rozo	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
98	Zecheng Dou	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
99	Pontus Nyholm	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
100	Davis Chatfield	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
101	Neal Shipley	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
102	Ryder Cowan	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
103	Hayden Springer	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
104	Jeffrey Kang	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
105	Blades Brown	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
106	Luke Clanton	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
107	Kihei Akina	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
108	Mauricio Figueroa Ramirez	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
109	Haotong Li	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
110	Jimmy Stanger	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
111	Alejandro Tosti	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
112	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
113	Gerardo Gomez	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
114	Alejandro Fierro	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
115	Kristoffer Ventura	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
116	Patrick Fishburn	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
117	Jesper Svensson	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
118	Keita Nakajima	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
119	Omar Morales	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back
120	Garrett Endicott	—	—	—	—	E	— played	0 back

TROPICAL LAYOUTWATER HAZARDSAPPROACH PRECISIONHUMIDITY FACTOR

ARCHITECTGreg Norman

PAR / YARDS71 / 7,144

GREENSBermuda

KEY SKILLApproach

SCORING TYPEBIRDIE FEST

WIND EXPOSURELOW

ROUGH SEVERITYMEDIUM

AVG PAR-3185 YDS

AVG WINNER-23

TYPICAL CUT+8

    COURSE OVERVIEWLIVE
  

COURSE SIGNATURE BIRDIE FEST

SCORING RHYTHM ▲ bogey holes ▼ birdie holes

POLAR ROUTING WHEEL P3 P4 P5

HOLE MOSAIC easy → neutral → hard

OTT

APP

OTT

PUTT

OTT

APP

PUTT

OTT

PUTT

APP

OTT

APP

OTT

VITAL STATS

7,144

YARDS

PAR

    4x P3 ·
    11x P4 ·
    3x P5
  

-23

AVG WINNER

WIND

ROUGH

27%

AVG BIRDIE RATE

14%

AVG BOGEY+ RATE

TYPICAL CUT

Bermuda

GREEN TYPE

COURSE PROFILE — VIDANTA VALLARTA

Tropical resort layout in heavy humidity. Water hazards and tight fairways demand precise driving. Approach accuracy into small Bermuda greens separates the field.

    RECENT WINNERS SG: APPROACH
  

YEAR	WINNER	SCORE	SG: APPROACH
2025	Thomas Detry	-25	+1.00
2024	Carlos Ortiz	-22	+0.80
2023	Tony Finau	-23	+0.90

PRIMARY SKILL SG: Approach

SECONDARY SKILL SG: Around the Green

GREENS Bermuda

PAR / YARDAGE Par 71 · 7,144 yds

AVG PAR-3 YARDAGE 185 yds

    HOLE-BY-HOLE SCORECARD
    
       HARD
       MED
       EASY

FRONT NINE

OTT

APP

OTT

PUTT

OTT

APP

PUTT

BACK NINE

PUTT

OTT

PUTT

APP

OTT

APP

OTT

    COURSE DEMAND SIGNATURE
  

OTT

57%

PUTT

25%

APP

18%

ARG

    TOP FIT — SKILL OVERLAY
    
      ■ course demand
      ■ player skill

Scottie Scheffler

FIT: 61%

Xander Schauffele

FIT: 59%

Rory McIlroy

FIT: 59%

    FIELD FIT RANKINGS ● = has opportunity
  

#	PLAYER	FIT SCORE	%
#1	Adrien Dumont De Chassart●		60%

    PLAYER-COURSE FIT MATRIX
    
       TOP 25%
       25-50%
       50-75%
       BTM 25%
    
    ● = has opportunity
  

#	PLAYER	OTT	APP	ARG	PUTT	TOT	FIT
#1	Scottie Scheffler
#2	Ludvig Aberg
#3	Patrick Cantlay
#4	Si Woo Kim
#5	Xander Schauffele
#6	Rory McIlroy
#7	Cameron Young
#8	Matt Fitzpatrick
#9	Tommy Fleetwood
#10	Chris Gotterup
#11	Joaquin Niemann
#12	Sam Burns
#13	Tom Kim
#14	Ryan Gerard
#15	Hideki Matsuyama
#16	J.J. Spaun
#17	Adam Scott
#18	Justin Thomas
#19	Collin Morikawa
#20	Ben Griffin

    HOLE-BY-HOLE FIT HEATMAP
    
       STRONG
       GOOD
       NEUTRAL
       WEAK
    
  

PLAYER	1 OTT	2 OTT	3 APP	4 OTT	5 PUTT	6 PUTT	7 OTT	8 APP	9 PUTT	10 PUTT	11 OTT	12 PUTT	13 APP	14 OTT	15 OTT	16 APP	17 OTT	18 OTT	MATCH
Scottie Scheffler																			18/18
Xander Schauffele																			18/18
Rory McIlroy																			18/18
Chris Gotterup																			18/18
Cameron Young																			18/18
Michael Brennan																			18/18
Ludvig Aberg																			18/18
Ryan Gerard																			18/18
Doug Ghim																			18/18
Joaquin Niemann																			18/18
Collin Morikawa																			18/18
Sam Burns																			18/18
Jon Rahm																			18/18
Keith Mitchell																			18/18
Bryson DeChambeau																			18/18
Si Woo Kim																			18/18
Russell Henley																			18/18
Patrick Cantlay																			18/18
Adam Scott																			18/18
Daniel Hillier																			18/18

#	SG: APPROACH LEADERS ● = has opportunity	SG VALUE
#1	Scottie Scheffler	+1.18
#2	Patrick Cantlay	+0.96
#3	Ludvig Aberg	+0.89
#4	Si Woo Kim	+0.85
#5	Joaquin Niemann	+0.83
#6	Rory McIlroy	+0.78
#7	Xander Schauffele	+0.74
#8	Adam Scott	+0.74
#9	Tom Kim	+0.73
#10	Ryan Gerard	+0.69
#11	Adrien Dumont De Chassart	-0.14

#	SG: AROUND THE GREEN LEADERS ● = has opportunity	SG VALUE
#1	Justin Thomas	+0.49
#2	Jason Day	+0.37
#3	Matt Fitzpatrick	+0.36
#4	Scottie Scheffler	+0.35
#5	Cameron Smith	+0.34
#6	Hideki Matsuyama	+0.34
#7	Mackenzie Hughes	+0.32
#8	Stephan Jaeger	+0.31
#9	Nick Taylor	+0.30
#10	Tommy Fleetwood	+0.29
#11	Adrien Dumont De Chassart	+0.21

OPEN POSITIONS

No open positions tracked yet this tournament.